Irish Politics Thread

The term FFG has been used since 2011 and to be honest has been used with good reason as basically nothing separates them bar perhaps FG being a bit more liberal on social issues. 

There is of course a staunch FFG vote but it's literally dying off by the year - modern Ireland began in the late 1980s/early 1990s - 1992 was a key year, probably the key year, seeing the downfall of Haughey, the X Case, the Maastricht Treaty and Labour winning 33 seats. Since 1992, young people have not been in thrall to FFG, they have been an irrelevance to them, and that has played out continuously over the years since then as the FFG vote share fell. Young people are actively hostile to FFG and have been for a long time. 

Since 1992 there have been elections where one of FFG got a high seat number, but it has been accompanied by a corresponding massive fall for the other - 2002 when FF got 81 seats saw FG fall to the low 30s, the 2011 when FG got 76 saw FF fall to 20. 

24 years after 1992 saw FFG's vote share fall below 50% for the first time and now it's down to below 45%. Simple maths are catching up with them and in 2024/25 we will have most of those now 13-17 years of age not voting FFG and another four or five years' worth of dead FFG voters. 

SF's one big weakness is they have elected a load of nobodies, some with questionable views, who never expected to be TDs and could be out of their depth at a local level. But their front bench is strong - way stronger than Fianna Fail's - and they will attract more quality young candidates, whereas FF in particular won't - the standard of FF candidate coming through, as well as the standard of the existing ones - is awful. SF's appeal was national not local and it's still likely to be in four or five years' time. 

There are no dead constituencies. SF have a chance everywhere from now on. A second election this year would likely see them take seats in Limerick County, Cork North West, Galway East and Dublin Rathdown etc., pretty much all the ones where they missed out this time. And that's probably going to be the case in four or five years' time as well. Fianna Fail now is a rural party. Mary Lou McDonald will have the opposition leader's seat, and that's a big deal.

In the times uk today but nothing in the Irish media about it

The difficulty is that FF were behind the wheel when the economy tanked. Their fellow coalition partners pushed the self destruct button in November 2008 and the Greens lost almost every elected representative they had between 2009-2011. Months after the IMF took control FF took 20 seats. That was at a time when under their administration unemployment soared to over 10%, the combined structural and banking deficit was north of €50 Billion, people we emigrating to find jobs in construction and engineering, savings plans were reduced to naught, failed banks had been bailed out, even nationalised, swaths of FF leadership didn’t even contest their seats. But with all that, they returned 20 seats. A mere five years later they won 23 seats, and even won a by-election while providing confidence and supply.

The point is, aspects of politics aren’t static and blame isn’t either. If Labour cut a niche for themselves, or some strategic move is made with the SD’s this could create a major opportunity for the social democratic left. I also don’t believe that SF are automatically on course to take the constituencies left behind in this election. Rathdown is an example. Martin is a high ranking GP member, while FG do have two strong candidates there. SF’s candidate lost her council seat last year, and there was no SD candidate this time. FF also have potential there on a good vote management system.

I think assuming that in four/five years time things won’t have moved on would be an error. 

I don’t expect an FF/FG resurgence. Irish politics has a habit of watershed moments which includes the dispensing of one party Governance. But ultimately, I don’t expect huge change in the current numbers, and even with a loss of 15 seats in 2025, the would still hold significant power in Governmental talks, even if every one of those seats was picked up by SF.

Your point about left leaning “retail politicians” is essentially making my point which is that we can overstate the inevitable growth of SF, based on how other parties of the left perform. While satisfied that this election has drawn Ireland to the left, the Irish left is a very divided house, and from an electoral point of view, you can be represented at national level no matter what left wing ideology you hold. But that means that the survival of certainleft wing elements is contingent of SF going so far, and that’s when the Greens will attack their environmental credentials, or the SDs and Labour their social credentials and PBP their representative credentials. They will be the subject of offensive moves from both angles, and to assume that the next five years will just be easy sailing for SF would be in error. My point is not that I disagree with an ongoing rise of left wing Ireland, my point is that it may not automatically manifest itself in SF.

Equally, a lot happens in five year cycles. The last five years internationally have been quite unbelievable, as were the five years before that, as were the five years before that when the crash happened. How politics will pan out over five years is too much to project. I saw an interview with Ken Livingstone the other night essentially repeat the assumption that the next five years will be such a mess in the UK that Labour will practically be waiting in the wings to take over when the British public inevitably ask them. The Tories were a mess between 2016 and 2019. Beaten badly in local and EU elections, repeated defeated in the Commons, constant obfuscation over Brexit, the disastrous May tenure, and yet we still got what we got in December. And I ton the bargain Brexit isnow a reality. Four years ago it was just assumed that Trump would be such a major disaster that it wouldn’t be even an issue that he would be rolled out of office, and yet the Dems are now so divided it’s unclear whether he’ll get the outcome he deserves which is to lose badly. Again, my point here is about SF. The next five years may take a different course depending on how the wider opposition do.

Care to specify?