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notpropaganda73 
Liam Brady
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 Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 10:49am |
 Het-field wrote:
But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI? |
sorry I missed this. Of course unionists aren't a monolith, no more than republicans or the fabled "I'm Northern Irish, not Irish or British" folks up here. Of course there would be some unionists that could be swung away from their belief in the UK based on economic benefits or being a bigger part of a smaller pie so to speak. But again, I was more talking about people in the south bringing up "including unionists" as a core element of UI discussions, when these folks never (or rarely) engage with unionists themselves. It's just a phrase, it doesn't mean anything. A unionist majority will be fundamentally opposed to a UI, no more than a majority in Ireland would be fundamentally opposed to rejoining the UK. That doesn't mean we don't build a vision or discussion around what it could all look like, or throw any potential citizens' assembly plans away because no unionists will join the discussions.
In relation to the polling, if 40% would vote for a UI today based on absolutely zero discussions around what it could look like, imagine what the percentage would be with some work and preparation done. But horsebox is right, the British government are talking out two sides of their mouths and it's worked very well for them overall. It's why the Tories are scolding the DUP for not going back to Stormont, if things got back to "making Northern Ireland work" as they all love to say, they could wave away talk around the criteria surrounding a referendum a lot easier. Regardless, they are staunch unionists themselves and no more than the DUP not helping shape what a United Ireland could look like, neither the Tories or Labour under the current leadership will ever lay out clear criteria for a referendum on this because it is not in their fundamental beliefs to do so.
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notpropaganda73
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 10:55am |
Borussia wrote:
horsebox wrote:
Borussia wrote:
horsebox wrote:
Borussia wrote:
horsebox wrote:
It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.
However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward. |
I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon.
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Correct. Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land.
Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate.
Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA.
The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle.
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But that's all irrelevant really if people in the north don't want a united Ireland. You could have a poll tomorrow and "if" the estimates our right (and yes opinion polls can be wrong) you'd probably have, at best, a 40% result in favour of it. Any discussion on the criteria of a poll would presumably need to be held in an environment of their being a likelihood of it passing which doesn't seem close at the moment. That's the point I was making above.
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If the people of NI DO want a UI. The relevance is that the British government simply will not cooperate no matter the opinion polls or people say.
I think NI or Scotland breaking away from the Union will weaken the UK.
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I'm not just being contrary here but I think if we ever got to that stage then there is more than a fair chance a vote is called. Many people in the UK feel, for differing reasons, feel that the north should be part of a UI - Some because they think its the right thing to do, others because they don't care. And I think we've seen that the current governing party don't give 2 f**ks about the north - It was an after thought in the Brexit debate and they've repeatedly demonstrated that their Brexit is far more important that the north. Scotland is different given it's natural resources, whereas the north just costs them money. |
They don't give two f**ks about the people, but they absolutely care about the integrity of their union. They are selfish, greedy bastards who have a very Westminster-centric view of the world, but in their world, the UK is one country. The little Englanders have had an effect for sure but I still think that unionist instinct runs too deep.
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Borussia
Roy Keane
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 10:56am |
notpropaganda73 wrote:
Het-field wrote:
But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI? |
sorry I missed this. Of course unionists aren't a monolith, no more than republicans or the fabled "I'm Northern Irish, not Irish or British" folks up here. Of course there would be some unionists that could be swung away from their belief in the UK based on economic benefits or being a bigger part of a smaller pie so to speak. But again, I was more talking about people in the south bringing up "including unionists" as a core element of UI discussions, when these folks never (or rarely) engage with unionists themselves. It's just a phrase, it doesn't mean anything. A unionist majority will be fundamentally opposed to a UI, no more than a majority in Ireland would be fundamentally opposed to rejoining the UK. That doesn't mean we don't build a vision or discussion around what it could all look like, or throw any potential citizens' assembly plans away because no unionists will join the discussions.
In relation to the polling, if 40% would vote for a UI today based on absolutely zero discussions around what it could look like, imagine what the percentage would be with some work and preparation done. But horsebox is right, the British government are talking out two sides of their mouths and it's worked very well for them overall. It's why the Tories are scolding the DUP for not going back to Stormont, if things got back to "making Northern Ireland work" as they all love to say, they could wave away talk around the criteria surrounding a referendum a lot easier. Regardless, they are staunch unionists themselves and no more than the DUP not helping shape what a United Ireland could look like, neither the Tories or Labour under the current leadership will ever lay out clear criteria for a referendum on this because it is not in their fundamental beliefs to do so. |
Just to clarify on this as it comes from my post previously - The polling has this figure at 27%. I was factoring in that if a vote happened tomorrow then some of the "Don't Knows" might well vote for it.
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Saint Tom
Jack Charlton
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:20am |
Borussia wrote:
notpropaganda73 wrote:
Het-field wrote:
But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI? |
sorry I missed this. Of course unionists aren't a monolith, no more than republicans or the fabled "I'm Northern Irish, not Irish or British" folks up here. Of course there would be some unionists that could be swung away from their belief in the UK based on economic benefits or being a bigger part of a smaller pie so to speak. But again, I was more talking about people in the south bringing up "including unionists" as a core element of UI discussions, when these folks never (or rarely) engage with unionists themselves. It's just a phrase, it doesn't mean anything. A unionist majority will be fundamentally opposed to a UI, no more than a majority in Ireland would be fundamentally opposed to rejoining the UK. That doesn't mean we don't build a vision or discussion around what it could all look like, or throw any potential citizens' assembly plans away because no unionists will join the discussions.
In relation to the polling, if 40% would vote for a UI today based on absolutely zero discussions around what it could look like, imagine what the percentage would be with some work and preparation done. But horsebox is right, the British government are talking out two sides of their mouths and it's worked very well for them overall. It's why the Tories are scolding the DUP for not going back to Stormont, if things got back to "making Northern Ireland work" as they all love to say, they could wave away talk around the criteria surrounding a referendum a lot easier. Regardless, they are staunch unionists themselves and no more than the DUP not helping shape what a United Ireland could look like, neither the Tories or Labour under the current leadership will ever lay out clear criteria for a referendum on this because it is not in their fundamental beliefs to do so. |
Just to clarify on this as it comes from my post previously - The polling has this figure at 27%. I was factoring in that if a vote happened tomorrow then some of the "Don't Knows" might well vote for it. |
One poll does. Others are higher
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Borussia
Roy Keane
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:22am |
Saint Tom wrote:
Borussia wrote:
notpropaganda73 wrote:
Het-field wrote:
But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI? |
sorry I missed this. Of course unionists aren't a monolith, no more than republicans or the fabled "I'm Northern Irish, not Irish or British" folks up here. Of course there would be some unionists that could be swung away from their belief in the UK based on economic benefits or being a bigger part of a smaller pie so to speak. But again, I was more talking about people in the south bringing up "including unionists" as a core element of UI discussions, when these folks never (or rarely) engage with unionists themselves. It's just a phrase, it doesn't mean anything. A unionist majority will be fundamentally opposed to a UI, no more than a majority in Ireland would be fundamentally opposed to rejoining the UK. That doesn't mean we don't build a vision or discussion around what it could all look like, or throw any potential citizens' assembly plans away because no unionists will join the discussions.
In relation to the polling, if 40% would vote for a UI today based on absolutely zero discussions around what it could look like, imagine what the percentage would be with some work and preparation done. But horsebox is right, the British government are talking out two sides of their mouths and it's worked very well for them overall. It's why the Tories are scolding the DUP for not going back to Stormont, if things got back to "making Northern Ireland work" as they all love to say, they could wave away talk around the criteria surrounding a referendum a lot easier. Regardless, they are staunch unionists themselves and no more than the DUP not helping shape what a United Ireland could look like, neither the Tories or Labour under the current leadership will ever lay out clear criteria for a referendum on this because it is not in their fundamental beliefs to do so. |
Just to clarify on this as it comes from my post previously - The polling has this figure at 27%. I was factoring in that if a vote happened tomorrow then some of the "Don't Knows" might well vote for it. |
One poll does. Others are higher |
Was the IPSOS one I was referring to as that was the one I remember looking at and the only one I had seen which broke down opinions be religion. Which other polls were there? Would be keen to have a look.
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Het-field
Roy Keane
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:43am |
notpropaganda73 wrote:
sorry I missed this. Of course unionists aren't a monolith, no more than republicans or the fabled "I'm Northern Irish, not Irish or British" folks up here. Of course there would be some unionists that could be swung away from their belief in the UK based on economic benefits or being a bigger part of a smaller pie so to speak. But again, I was more talking about people in the south bringing up "including unionists" as a core element of UI discussions, when these folks never (or rarely) engage with unionists themselves. It's just a phrase, it doesn't mean anything. A unionist majority will be fundamentally opposed to a UI, no more than a majority in Ireland would be fundamentally opposed to rejoining the UK. That doesn't mean we don't build a vision or discussion around what it could all look like, or throw any potential citizens' assembly plans away because no unionists will join the discussions.
In relation to the polling, if 40% would vote for a UI today based on absolutely zero discussions around what it could look like, imagine what the percentage would be with some work and preparation done. But horsebox is right, the British government are talking out two sides of their mouths and it's worked very well for them overall. It's why the Tories are scolding the DUP for not going back to Stormont, if things got back to "making Northern Ireland work" as they all love to say, they could wave away talk around the criteria surrounding a referendum a lot easier. Regardless, they are staunch unionists themselves and no more than the DUP not helping shape what a United Ireland could look like, neither the Tories or Labour under the current leadership will ever lay out clear criteria for a referendum on this because it is not in their fundamental beliefs to do so. |
But that’s where the ‘shades of grey’ come into play. It doesn’t have to be all unionists, nor do most people argue that involving unionists mean EVER strand of unionist. Some unionists will see it as inevitable, and therefore in their interests to have voices heard. Equally, others will view it pragmatically and if it enhances their financial/personal situation, they will roll with it. There will also be the democratic unionist types (not DUP’ers), who will see it as the will of the people and as a result accept it as a Democrat of goodwill. That is the type of unionist likely to engage, and that will ultimately be sufficient, and it will be tough luck for those who decide to stick their fingers in their ears.
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Jackal
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:53am |
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To be fair to the Brits, if the majority of MLAs and MPs were nationalist then they'd make some criteria. The majority if MLAs are the moment are not in favour of an All Ireland.
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Saint Tom
Jack Charlton
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 12:21pm |
Jackal wrote:
To be fair to the Brits, if the majority of MLAs and MPs were nationalist then they'd make some criteria. The majority if MLAs are the moment are not in favour of an All Ireland. |
There isn't a majority of MLAs designated as unionist either.
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Trigboy 10
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 2:41pm |
horsebox wrote:
My comment was based on the fact that the UK government have ignored all requests to outline the criteria for a border poll from multiple sources (not SF).
The majority of people who have held the position of secretary of state are usually staunch Unionists themselves. So they or the PM will not want to be seen to be the one to drive forward the end of the Union.
They simply don't have to cooperate - they never really have to be honest.
You just need to look at our history with the UK, they have been fobbing us off for centuries, drip feeding us token gestures every now and again.
I just don't think they are willing to cooperate into the dismantlement of their own sovereign territory by a bunch of Paddies.
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The one big mistake in the Good Friday deal was only allowing the Secretary of State for NI to call the referendum. It probably should’ve been a joint agreement or a set time like 30-40 year anniversary for the first one to get the ball rolling. Think Bertie just rushed the deal through thinking of his legacy but in reality a UI is as far away as ever and the British don’t have any more bombs to deal with it.
Edited by Trigboy 10 - 27 Jan 2023 at 2:42pm
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Jackal
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 2:49pm |
Saint Tom wrote:
Jackal wrote:
To be fair to the Brits, if the majority of MLAs and MPs were nationalist then they'd make some criteria. The majority if MLAs are the moment are not in favour of an All Ireland. |
There isn't a majority of MLAs designated as unionist either. |
That suits the current arrangement.
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Green Cockade
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 2:57pm |
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Nobody knows how far away it is but it is a matter of when not if. When it happens, rest assured a British government will not be neutral-and it will not be leaning on the side of political unionism, a rapidly diminishing force with nothing positive to offer, only tribalism and paranoia. A lot of work is being done already on the options for making a United Ireland work and when serious campaigning begins, expect more light to be shone. And do not forget the importance of the so-called middle ground, the traditionally unaligned such as Alliance Party members and voters who have in recent years become more nationalist than unionist oriented. The British will depart this colony in due course as they have others. I would not bet on us beating the Scots to the departure gate but certainly there is more reason for them to try and retain Scotland.
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horsebox
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 4:00pm |
Trigboy 10 wrote:
horsebox wrote:
My comment was based on the fact that the UK government have ignored all requests to outline the criteria for a border poll from multiple sources (not SF).
The majority of people who have held the position of secretary of state are usually staunch Unionists themselves. So they or the PM will not want to be seen to be the one to drive forward the end of the Union.
They simply don't have to cooperate - they never really have to be honest.
You just need to look at our history with the UK, they have been fobbing us off for centuries, drip feeding us token gestures every now and again.
I just don't think they are willing to cooperate into the dismantlement of their own sovereign territory by a bunch of Paddies.
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The one big mistake in the Good Friday deal was only allowing the Secretary of State for NI to call the referendum. It probably should’ve been a joint agreement or a set time like 30-40 year anniversary for the first one to get the ball rolling. Think Bertie just rushed the deal through thinking of his legacy but in reality a UI is as far away as ever and the British don’t have any more bombs to deal with it.
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There were lots of mistakes in the GFA to be honest. Handing over the rights to the 6 counties is another one.
The GFA is basically a legal document copperfastening British sovereignty over Northern Ireland, SF has zero input into it, not a single word. Which is why SF were accused of selling out and very little ex Republican prisoners supported the GFA. Some obviosly did as they were facing massive prison sentences and walked out free men.
The GFA is a massive win for Unionists.
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to
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Given's zimmerframe
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 5:14pm |
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somewhat true but a ui is now legally possible as a result of the gfa, before the gfa a ui was only possible through force
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horsebox
Robbie Keane
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 5:19pm |
How is it legally possible?
The Brits have not set out the criteria. Which allows them to move the goals ports accordingly.
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to
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Green Cockade
Liam Brady
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 5:35pm |
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Simple majority vote wins it. No agreed mechanism in place before the GFA. No criteria published for holding the border poll but realistically it will happen when it looks likely there’ll be a clear majority for unity.
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Borussia
Roy Keane
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 5:39pm |
Green Cockade wrote:
Simple majority vote wins it. No agreed mechanism in place before the GFA. No criteria published for holding the border poll but realistically it will happen when it looks likely there’ll be a clear majority for unity. |
That's what the GFA says. The reality of it is that there would probably need to be a majority of MLAs from parties who would advocate a UI and would also need to be consistent polling in favour of a UI for it to happen.
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Given's zimmerframe
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Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 8:01pm |
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I agree with the earlier comments about the framework for a ui being quietly put in place as we speak. All thats really needed to win the majority of unionists over is money. If the uk continues to defecate in its own mouth a ui might suddenly happen a lot sooner than expected.
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Shedite
Jack Charlton
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Posted: 28 Jan 2023 at 8:41am |
Borussia wrote:
Green Cockade wrote:
Simple majority vote wins it. No agreed mechanism in place before the GFA. No criteria published for holding the border poll but realistically it will happen when it looks likely there’ll be a clear majority for unity. |
That's what the GFA says. The reality of it is that there would probably need to be a majority of MLAs from parties who would advocate a UI and would also need to be consistent polling in favour of a UI for it to happen.
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It also needs to pass a referendum in the south to happen too.
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