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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:12pm
Not propaganda, I definitely agree that the questions around funding etc are often asked in bad faith, or as you say, as a sort of ‘gotcha.’ A more appropriate question is one of transition which involves key issues like local and devolved governance, reallocation of civil service to meet key needs, and the transition from the NHS, to a joint system here. Like Brexit, there will be UK politicians that would demand a ‘hard break’, and a demand that the six counties either transition directly to the UI platform, or go it alone. I would assume that the most likely outcome would be a transitional phase in terms of public services etc.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:23pm
Originally posted by notpropaganda73 notpropaganda73 wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Saint Tom Saint Tom wrote:


And what's wrong with that? Any one in the Southern State who is against unity or possibly rejoining the UK union is a West Brit. Any longing to support the UK despite all evidence of their destructive behaviour in the last decade is deserving of mockery.

No more loaded than insinuating anyone who supports a change and s willing to vote SF to see that condones "sinister" "not a normal party" and is supportive of armed conflict.

Things have moved on

Let’s be honest, it goes much further than the negligible minority of people who would support rejoining the UK. The term is used misuse to describe people who ask legitimate questions about how a constitutional United Ireland would work, how it would be funded, how the unionist minority would be accommodated etc, etc. Earlier in the thread the term ‘free-stater’ was used on the back of a discussion criticising SF, or drawing parallels.

Leaving aside the west brit nonsense, I'm always curious what the folks "asking legitimate questions" are looking for as answers. The majority of the time it feels (to me) like a "gotcha", where the grown ups are talking serious politics and economics and nationalists with their pie-in-the-sky ideas don't have any concrete plans. Like the "how is it going to be funded" argument is just another way of smugly sitting back because you already believe it will cost huge amounts and you want a nationalist to say that, as if the cost will somehow change their mind about unity as a whole. It's the same with pretty much anything political. Look at unionists up north losing their minds over the Irish language act, when the more moderate among them realised just plain old bigotry wasn't flying any more, they pivoted to the funding argument. We'd love to accommodate Irish, but jeez we just don't have the money. f**k, look at people in the Republic complaining about the cost of Irish language services. The cost is not really relevant when it's a fundamental principle. How much does it cost to provide free primary education in Ireland? How is it funded? What does it matter? 

I've often found as well that if any plans or suggestions in relation to unity or it's benefits are presented, they're waved away, or nationalists are scolded for pushing a narrative when the country isn't ready, and you're gonna spook the unionists actually, and really this is a sensitive time, would you not keep quiet.

There should be a citizen's assembly on unity put together, as tedious as it may seem deliberative democracy has been shown to work in Ireland when there's political will behind it. The abortion legislation is a pretty clear example of this, a hugely contentious issue in the run up to that referendum but everyone knew where they stood and what legislation was coming down the road because of those assemblies in the year beforehand. It hasn't been perfect since then (people both for and against it) but in terms of such a fundamental change to the constitution, it's probably gone about as smoothly as you could hope.

A citizen's assembly is the starting point, and more questions will no doubt spring from it, but it at least establishes a framework. Accommodating unionists would be part of that too, inviting them along to discussions - but at some point people in the Republic who question any talk about unity need to realise that a significant majority of unionists will most likely simply not engage. It is anathema to them to even discuss it as a possibility. They can't engage even in a contingency plan because their political outlook doesn't have room for it. They can't help build out the vision for a potential United Ireland in case it helps make it become a reality. And if that fact means that unity is just a non-starter for some people in the Republic, that is certainly a point of view they're entitled to - but at least be honest about that from the outset, and don't pretend as if it is a nationalists responsibility to softly softly absolutely everything with regards to unity for the sake of a fictional unionist who apparently wants to be part of the discussion. 

Excellent post. Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:23pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Not propaganda, I definitely agree that the questions around funding etc are often asked in bad faith, or as you say, as a sort of ‘gotcha.’ A more appropriate question is one of transition which involves key issues like local and devolved governance, reallocation of civil service to meet key needs, and the transition from the NHS, to a joint system here. Like Brexit, there will be UK politicians that would demand a ‘hard break’, and a demand that the six counties either transition directly to the UI platform, or go it alone. I would assume that the most likely outcome would be a transitional phase in terms of public services etc.



I can see that also - But I still think there is validity to it. When Germany reunified, there was a lot of initial resentment in the West as the "Wessies" felt like they were carrying the "Ossies" due to the cost to them. Not saying the same would totally exist in Ireland but there would probably be some people in the south who would hold the opinion that they would like a united Ireland but only when it was affordable. 

And in terms of engaging with Unionists, I do get the point that many won't engage, but at the same time if the recent polling is correct that in order to get a majority of people voting for a united Ireland in the north then you'd need to convince some soft Unionists that this was a valid path for them (along with some Nationalists who might need to be convinced about their place in a united Ireland).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:32pm
Funny you should mention that.

The IMF economist who over saw the Germany reunification said this - https://www.thesun.ie/news/3770331/economist-united-ireland-costs-finances/

Senator Mark Daly's figures are 700m pa. That was pre Brexit though.

People will be pulling figures out of nowhere based on what side of the fence you sit on.

I've seen the full UK military budget included in the running costs for NI and the pensions and all sorts of other stuff.

I don't think anyone has a true full understanding of the costs. 

I've read some German professors living Ireland saying that they never in a million years would have thought Germany would unify and he mentioned some of the issues Borussia mentioned above and give his own 2 cents on how we should go about it.

This discussion should take place now with a vote in about 10 years time as it will take that time to iron out a lot of these details. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:35pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Funny you should mention that.

The IMF economist who over saw the Germany reunification said this - https://www.thesun.ie/news/3770331/economist-united-ireland-costs-finances/

Senator Mark Daly's figures are 700m pa. That was pre Brexit though.

People will be pulling figures out of nowhere based on what side of the fence you sit on.

I've seen the full UK military budget included in the running costs for NI and the pensions and all sorts of other stuff.

I don't think anyone has a true full understanding of the costs. 

I've read some German professors living Ireland saying that they never in a million years would have thought Germany would unify and he mentioned some of the issues Borussia mentioned above and give his own 2 cents on how we should go about it.

This discussion should take place now with a vote in about 10 years time as it will take that time to iron out a lot of these details. 

Won't be clicking on any links to that paper but definitely a valid point that lessons can be learned from what happened in Germany. 

Do you think that a vote in 10 years time is realistic? After Brexit I would definitely have said so but there really doesn't seem to be a massive appetite for it in the north. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jamo1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:53pm
Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Funny you should mention that.

The IMF economist who over saw the Germany reunification said this - https://www.thesun.ie/news/3770331/economist-united-ireland-costs-finances/

Senator Mark Daly's figures are 700m pa. That was pre Brexit though.

People will be pulling figures out of nowhere based on what side of the fence you sit on.

I've seen the full UK military budget included in the running costs for NI and the pensions and all sorts of other stuff.

I don't think anyone has a true full understanding of the costs. 

I've read some German professors living Ireland saying that they never in a million years would have thought Germany would unify and he mentioned some of the issues Borussia mentioned above and give his own 2 cents on how we should go about it.

This discussion should take place now with a vote in about 10 years time as it will take that time to iron out a lot of these details. 

Won't be clicking on any links to that paper but definitely a valid point that lessons can be learned from what happened in Germany. 

Do you think that a vote in 10 years time is realistic? After Brexit I would definitely have said so but there really doesn't seem to be a massive appetite for it in the north. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 3:55pm
It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 4:02pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.

I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon. 


Edited by Borussia - 26 Jan 2023 at 4:05pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote notpropaganda73 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 4:42pm
Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

And in terms of engaging with Unionists, I do get the point that many won't engage, but at the same time if the recent polling is correct that in order to get a majority of people voting for a united Ireland in the north then you'd need to convince some soft Unionists that this was a valid path for them (along with some Nationalists who might need to be convinced about their place in a united Ireland).

to be clear, I'm not saying don't bother. a case has to be built for unity to persuade people to vote for it, without a doubt. 

my point was more aimed at those in the south bringing it up as a sort of reasoning to water down discussions. if a unionist isn't present or included in a discussion around unity, for some people it's a non-starter or highlights some innate exclusionary nature in the nationalist tradition. there has to be a realisation of the fundamental unionist position. We can discuss how to accommodate the unionist tradition and how to build a UI for everyone, but I think some honesty about this whole thing wouldn't go amiss. I'm a bit cynical when people bring it up, it certainly feels like people scolding nationalists for not asking the unionists what they think, rather than just asking unionists what they think if that makes sense
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 4:52pm
But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 4:55pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI?

Would suggest looking at the IPSOS polling I mentioned above - That goes into detail on all of that. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 5:21pm
Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.

I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon. 

Correct.
Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land.

Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate. 

Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA.

The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle. 

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 5:27pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.

I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon. 

Correct.
Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land.

Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate. 

Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA.

The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle. 

 

But that's all irrelevant really if people in the north don't want a united Ireland. You could have a poll tomorrow and "if" the estimates our right (and yes opinion polls can be wrong) you'd probably have, at best, a 40% result in favour of it.
Any discussion on the criteria of a poll would presumably need to be held in an environment of their being a likelihood of it passing which doesn't seem close at the moment. That's the point I was making above. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shedite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 5:46pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

People will be pulling figures out of nowhere based on what side of the fence you sit on.
Yeah the UI debate will be another one of those "€350m a week to Europe" campaigns. There's be lies on both sides to exaggerate the costs
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Given's zimmerframe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 5:58pm
Would a unity poll not force the british to release exact finance figures for the north? If so there is a good reason to have the first one, the next can be 7 years later I think? I think it will get awkward for the british if sf continue to gain traction north and south and scotland push more for an indy ref.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2023 at 7:27pm
Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.

I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon. 

Correct.
Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land.

Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate. 

Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA.

The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle. 

 

But that's all irrelevant really if people in the north don't want a united Ireland. You could have a poll tomorrow and "if" the estimates our right (and yes opinion polls can be wrong) you'd probably have, at best, a 40% result in favour of it.
Any discussion on the criteria of a poll would presumably need to be held in an environment of their being a likelihood of it passing which doesn't seem close at the moment. That's the point I was making above. 


If the people of NI DO want a UI. The relevance is that the British government simply will not cooperate no matter the opinion polls or people say.

I think NI or Scotland breaking away from the Union will weaken the UK.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 9:18am
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.

However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.

I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon. 

Correct.
Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land.

Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate. 

Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA.

The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle. 

 

But that's all irrelevant really if people in the north don't want a united Ireland. You could have a poll tomorrow and "if" the estimates our right (and yes opinion polls can be wrong) you'd probably have, at best, a 40% result in favour of it.
Any discussion on the criteria of a poll would presumably need to be held in an environment of their being a likelihood of it passing which doesn't seem close at the moment. That's the point I was making above. 


If the people of NI DO want a UI. The relevance is that the British government simply will not cooperate no matter the opinion polls or people say.

I think NI or Scotland breaking away from the Union will weaken the UK.


I'm not just being contrary here but I think if we ever got to that stage then there is more than a fair chance a vote is called. Many people in the UK feel, for differing reasons, feel that the north should be part of a UI - Some because they think its the right thing to do, others because they don't care. 
And I think we've seen that the current governing party don't give 2 f**ks about the north - It was an after thought in the Brexit debate and they've repeatedly demonstrated that their Brexit is far more important that the north. Scotland is different given it's natural resources, whereas the north just costs them money. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 9:26am
My comment was based on the fact that the UK government have ignored all requests to outline the criteria for a border poll from multiple sources (not SF). 

The majority of people who have held the position of secretary of state are usually staunch Unionists themselves. So they or the PM will not want to be seen to be the one to drive forward the end of the Union.

They simply don't have to cooperate - they never really have to be honest.

You just need to look at our history with the UK, they have been fobbing us off for centuries, drip feeding us token gestures every now and again.

I just don't think they are willing to cooperate into the dismantlement of their own sovereign territory by a bunch of Paddies.


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