Irish Politics Thread |
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deise316
Moderator Group Don't ask me about car warranty Joined: 11 Apr 2009 Location: The Déise Status: Offline Points: 10921 |
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That won't happen. A Taoiseach has to be elected, if FF/FG aren't going to work with SF, they sure aren't going to either vote for MLM as Taoiseach, or abstain from the vote and allow her become Taoiseach in the first place. If they did either, the first thing she would do is call another election looking to increase her mandate to govern from the people- not a chance FF/FG allow that- if they are going down the ''call another election'' route, they won't leave the decision to make that call to SF. |
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Picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.....
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Pipkin
Liam Brady Joined: 07 May 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1975 |
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If they went back to the polls tomorrow that 43% would collapse I think it is under appreciated the extent to which Irish voters end up veering toward FF and FG to avoid casting a ‘wasted’ vote, as they see it; I.e. voting for a party or independent that won’t be in power. Now instead of having two choices to avoid a wasted vote there are three. This would tell especially in the constituencies where they didn’t pick up seats. They would pick up a seat in every constituency should another election be called.
Edited by Pipkin - 14 Feb 2020 at 12:43am |
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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I wouldn't be lumping on. I think a lot of FFG TDs would be very nervous about their prospects in another election and that will force their hand and ensure a FFG coalition. FF in particular have manoeuvred themselves into a terrible position. They need to be in government to be in any way relevant, but they've completely lost the old FF ability to play poker. They are looking around for the fool, and they don't know who it is. Which obviously means it's them. I think ultimately after all they've said about SF, FFG now have no choice but to bite the bullet and finally get it on with each other. It sets up SF to romp to power in 2024 or more likely 2025, but FFG would lose more seats in a second election in 2020 if there was one, and you take what you can get now, which is one term in government, with an outside chance that it's perceived that you're actually making a success of it. Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that. |
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Online Points: 10546 |
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One of the new cohort of Shinner TDs now retracting a previous comment made about the HPV vaccine.
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Devrozex
Jack Charlton Joined: 23 Oct 2010 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 7675 |
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I think if they had a clear numerical advantage over SF they would have considered the possibility - but given they only hold one extra seat over them you're very much in rotating Taoiseach territory and they clearly didn't fancy that. If things went wrong in that scenario it would potentially lead to their mutually assured destruction with SF, as opposed to allowing them to throw SF under the bus Labour-style.
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Online Points: 10546 |
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I think this is it, in a nutshell. It would be less coalition and more power-sharing, with both parties eventually throwing pot shots at each other. It’s harder to mudguard a party that has Governmental experience in the North, and even harder when they have almost the same number of seats. This is slightly unchartered territory, and for a number of reasons. First, SF having the largest share of the vote which complicates the allocation of the top jobs. Second, FG have an appetite for opposition, so it makes no odds to them. Third, FF can have power, but at a price not previously paid in coalition governments. Fourth, no setup of two parties can create a stable coalition. Also, I’d be wary of assuming that Government in a FF/FG confidence and supply arrangement would ultimately be the destruction of both parties. Historically when votes and power were on the line FF would always go for loosening purse strings and repeating the amounts spent on various areas, while also finding ways of popping a few bob into peoples pockets through things like SSIA. In five years time if amounts of social housing was built etc, SF wouldn’t have the same clothes. Also, over the past six months SF’s vote has dramatically dropped and risen, so there isn’t a possibility that it might moderate downwards but not hugely.
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 25067 |
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Excellent point.
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Fruice
Liam Brady Joined: 22 Nov 2014 Location: Cork Status: Offline Points: 1259 |
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I would feel that FF/FG won’t go near SF.
The biggest problem I think either FF/FG would face today is another election this year they wouldn’t lose many more seats but SF would run more candidates and end up with 50 plus candidates mainly at the expense of the other smaller parties. FF/FG know this better than anyone and if they both really don’t want SF in power will come to some agreement around the formation of a Government and give them 5 years to appease some of the swing voters on key issues such as housing, health, childcare etc. In the hope that in 5 years time these voters will have seen the benefits from their time in Government and vote for them rather than SF and thus reducing SF numbers. |
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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That's to assume that policies are the most important thing in politics. They actually aren't. One major thing SF have in their favour, and which an FFG coalition will completely cement, is the idea of the cartel, that only FFG can be in government. People are totally sick of this. They often don't know precisely why, but they are. How many governments have actually increased or at least held steady their number of seats at the following election? I can think of only one - the 1997-2002 FF/PD government, and that had a particularly gifted operator in terms of manipulating public opinion at its head. The current FFG has nobody like that. FFG currently have 73 seats between them. If they form a government, you're likely looking at south of 70 next time even if it goes relatively well. |
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Online Points: 10546 |
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It wouldn’t be policy as much as a sop to the electorate. Try to make them feel like the administration is doing something for them, making their lives a little easier, or are actually thinking about them. The IMF regulated budgets and subsequent FG style budgets couldn’t and didn’t do that respectively. We’ve certainly entered the realm of slogan politics. In this election it was to portmanteau (if used correctly here) the phrase FFG. The merger of the two parties into one handy acronym and tagging on something like “Say not to FFG”, or “No More FFG”. It was easy for all parties outside of that to rally to it, and after years of austere budgets, and the message of “change” which has underpinned the vast majority of international political outcomes (both good and bad) over the past decade, worked. It was akin to “Get Brexit Done”. Now, I’m still convinced there is a staunch FF/FG vote. I also believe there are constituencies with smaller seat numbers who aren’t going to kybosh their high profile TDs, for the local SF representative who may have zero impact on local politics, or even more to the point, no local profile. The SF brand is useful st the moment, but that won’t guarantee seats in dead constituencies, and more to the point it won’t guarantee taking them off FF/FG. They might increase numbers themselves, but if at the expense of left wing candidates their transfers elected, the overall thrust stays the same.
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Stickittotheman
Liam Brady Joined: 15 Sep 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2289 |
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Maybe the southern guys would know more about grassroots than me but if Fianna Fail goes into coalition with Fine Gael would there be a grassroots revolt and a raft of resignations from old style FF type people like O'Cuiv? There don't seem to be many good options at the moment for them.
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Walters coming back from an offside position but Shane Long was definitely onside- Shane Lonnggggggg.... has done it!!!!
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Online Points: 10546 |
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I don’t think you’d have a revolt, but I’m not surprised by O’Cuiv’s opposition. In spite of FF being in his lineage and “DNA”, he has not always been in line with the party, be it on matters related to the Repeal of the 8th Amendment, or matters of EU integration when put to the public vote. It would undoubtedly rankle with him if FF & FG coalesced, but even when at odds with the party in the past he has always come back to the fold.
Edited by Het-field - 14 Feb 2020 at 2:37pm |
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Trigboy 10
Liam Brady Joined: 02 May 2015 Status: Online Points: 1322 |
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Edited by Trigboy 10 - 14 Feb 2020 at 2:56pm |
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NewtNewbie
Liam Brady Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2416 |
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A David Baddiel-presented BBC2 documentary at 9PM 17 February prominently features far-right Irish Holocaust-denier, Dermot Mulqueen, who apparently has over 7000 followers on Facebook.
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pre Madonna
Robbie Keane I am MALDING Joined: 30 Nov 2014 Location: Trumpton Status: Offline Points: 44659 |
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Does he black up for this?
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NewtNewbie
Liam Brady Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2416 |
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Who, Baddiel? He's the kind of liberal who venerates the likes of Trudeau, so I wouldn't rule it out.
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pre Madonna
Robbie Keane I am MALDING Joined: 30 Nov 2014 Location: Trumpton Status: Offline Points: 44659 |
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He blacked up on Fantasy Football to mock Jason Lee. I get people do stupid things and comedians are always going to thread near the line, but he still refuses to apologise for it while calling people racist for how they pronounce a name. An absolute hypocrite, like most liberals.
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Online Points: 10546 |
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FG look like they’re are ruling out another confidence and supply.
Edited by Het-field - 14 Feb 2020 at 5:23pm |
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