Irish Politics Thread

If they went back to the polls tomorrow that 43% would collapse 

I think it is under appreciated the extent to which Irish voters end up veering toward FF and FG to avoid casting a ‘wasted’ vote, as they see it; I.e. voting for a party or independent that won’t be in power. Now instead of having two choices to avoid a wasted vote there are three. This would tell especially in the constituencies where they didn’t pick up seats. 

They would pick up a seat in every constituency should another election be called.

I think this is it, in a nutshell. It would be less coalition and more power-sharing, with both parties eventually throwing pot shots at each other. It’s harder to mudguard a party that has Governmental experience in the North, and even harder when they have almost the same number of seats.

This is slightly unchartered territory, and for a number of reasons. First, SF having the largest share of the vote which complicates the allocation of the top jobs. Second, FG have an appetite for opposition, so it makes no odds to them. Third, FF can have power, but at a price not previously paid in coalition governments. Fourth, no setup of two parties can create a stable coalition.

Also, I’d be wary of assuming that Government in a FF/FG confidence and supply arrangement would ultimately be the destruction of both parties. Historically when votes and power were on the line FF would always go for loosening purse strings and repeating the amounts spent on various areas, while also finding ways of popping a few bob into peoples pockets through things like SSIA. In five years time if amounts of social housing was built etc, SF wouldn’t have the same clothes. Also, over the past six months SF’s vote has dramatically dropped and risen, so there isn’t a possibility that it might moderate downwards but not hugely.  

The biggest problem I think either FF/FG  would face today is another election this year they wouldn’t lose many more seats but SF would run more candidates and end up with 50 plus candidates 

mainly at the expense of the other smaller parties.

FF/FG know this better than anyone and if they both really don’t want SF in power will come to some agreement around the formation of a Government and give them 5 years to appease some of the swing voters on key issues such as housing, health, childcare etc.

In the hope that in 5 years time these voters will have seen the benefits from their time in Government and vote for them rather than SF and thus reducing SF numbers.

It wouldn’t be policy as much as a sop to the electorate. Try to make them feel like the administration is doing something for them, making their lives a little easier, or are actually thinking about them. The IMF regulated budgets and subsequent FG style budgets couldn’t and didn’t do that respectively. We’ve certainly entered the realm of slogan politics. In this election it was to portmanteau (if used correctly here) the phrase FFG. The merger of the two parties into one handy acronym and tagging on something like “Say not to FFG”, or “No More FFG”. It was easy for all parties outside of that to rally to it, and after years of austere budgets, and the message of “change” which has underpinned the vast majority of international political outcomes (both good and bad) over the past decade, worked. It was akin to “Get Brexit Done”.

Now, I’m still convinced there is a staunch FF/FG vote. I also believe there are constituencies with smaller seat numbers who aren’t going to kybosh their high profile TDs, for the local

SF representative who may have zero impact on local politics, or even more to the point, no local profile. The SF brand is useful st the moment, but that won’t guarantee seats in dead constituencies, and more to the point it won’t guarantee taking them off FF/FG. They might increase numbers themselves, but if at the expense of left wing candidates their transfers elected, the overall thrust stays the same.

I don’t think you’d have a revolt, but I’m not surprised by O’Cuiv’s opposition. In spite of FF being in his lineage and “DNA”, he has not always been in line with the party, be it on matters related to the Repeal of the 8th Amendment, or matters of EU integration when put to the public vote. It would undoubtedly rankle with him if FF & FG coalesced, but even when at odds with the party in the past he has always come back to the fold.

Who, Baddiel?

He's the kind of liberal who venerates the likes of Trudeau, so I wouldn't rule it out.