Perspective needed

And they invest their qualification money very well indeed!

One thing on the playoffs: as everyone knows, we basically need to be in the eight best teams from the Nations League who have not qualified, if we are to make the playoffs. If we are ninth (i.e. if there are eight teams from the 22 above us who have not qualified) then we do not even make the playoffs. That being the case, let's look at those 22 teams. We need 15 of them to qualify automatically for us to make the playoffs, what with us being ranked 23rd in the Nations League overall ranking. Given the proviso that a league winning team in League C cannot be made to face a team from a higher league in a playoff, and given the fact one of those four is bound to fail (the Scots are currently in a poor position, as indeed are Serbia and Norway), we have to be in the top eight teams who do not qualify automatically, if we want a playoff place, as the League C playoffs are not going to save us.

Group A: England and the Czech Republic are both in prime position. They should both qualify automatically and have started the campaign well. Odds on both are about 90%, with about 10% on only one, 0% on neither.

Group B: Portugal and Ukraine. Ukraine have 10 points from four games, same as ourselves, but against tougher opposition. Portugal have 2 from 2 games and could find themselves in a battle, but Ukraine's 5-0 win over Serbia definitely helps. They should finish top two but there's a way to go. Odds on both are about 85%, with about 15% on one, 0% on neither.

Group C: Netherlands and Germany. The Netherlands don't have a lot of wiggle room left, to be honest. They need to beat Belarus away, Estonia home and away and get four points off Northern Ireland, in all likelihood. However, they are a decent side, so it's marginally in their favour, but they do need a lot, especially if they lose to Germany again. The Germans will steamroller their way through the group. Odds are about 75% on both, about 25% on one, 0% on neither.

Let's pause at that and say that at least four of the above six teams will qualify automatically, probably five, maybe even six. Five is the probable number.

Group D is our group. If we don't qualify, it will be because Switzerland and Denmark have, adding two more to the ranks above, bringing it to probably seven.

Group E: Croatia and Wales. This is where things start to look decidedly hairier. Wales are on a down slope, and arguably the Croatians are too. Slovakia have played some of their tougher games, and the Hungarians have beaten both Wales and Croatia at home. There's a chance neither of the top two seeds will do it here. I'd say the odds are only about 10% on both of them making it at this stage, 70% on one of them making it and 20% on neither.

Group F: Spain and Sweden. Both teams are in a decent position but it could all come down to Sweden's trip to Romania in November. I'd say the odds are about 60% on both making it, 40% on one, 0% on neither.

Group G: Poland and Austria. Poland have a 100% record including a couple of tricky away games under their belt and look reasonably secure, but Israel could be the thorn in the side for Austria. I'd say the odds are about 50% on both making it, 50% on only one.

At this stage, that probably pushes the number towards eleven of the first and second seeded teams from groups A to G making it, as four of the above six should make it.

Group H: France and Iceland. This is a straightforward two from three group, in all likelihood, with Turkey. That being the case, I'd say it's 50% for both and 50% for just one of the two to qualify.

Group I: Belgium and Russia. They look home and hosed, given how poor the Scots have been to date. I think it is the likeliest to have two seeds, something like 90%/10%/0%.

Group J: Italy and Bosnia. Bosnia have been a rabble, Italy are unbeaten. I'd say it's something like 5%/95%/5%.

That's adding on at least four teams likely to make it. That pushes it up to fifteen out of the twenty two, leaving us at a bit of risk of only fourteen of them actually qualifying automatically. That happens and there's no playoff.

There's no room for complacency and no reason to assume we will get a playoff, looking at how the other groups are currently panning out.

I actually meant to post it in the other thread that was discussing this already!

But yes, we should be cheering them on, especially because the more of the teams above us that qualify automatically, arguably the easier our task in the playoffs would become.

But with a better spread of players.

What is forgotten is that we had a reasonable slate of players under MON, and players like Brady and McClean were performing to a higher level. I accept we had injuries at times, but I feel MM had major remedial work to do to actually bring us up to any sort of standard.

Did he??? I don’t think losing 5-1 at home is any good for the oul goal difference. 

 

Robbie Keane scored 5 goals in the games against Gibraltar.

(a) Maybe O'Neill was right, we don't have the players. We only hockied Gibraltar twice because we had a top class goalscorer back then

(b) We have 10 points from 12 now, flying it in the group, glad we ditched O'Neill.

I agree with Baldrick, we know nothing from what we've done so far. Ourselves/Danes/Swiss need to keep beating the minnows, then take something from each other. The only impact so far is if it happened to end up we all beat the minnows and draw with each other, our GD is likely to be awful compared to Swiss/Danes