How confident are you about this campaign?

Some people seem to be under a misapprehension as to how the playoffs work. It is not the case that the four best teams in League B who have not qualified are therefore in the League B playoffs. They could equally end up in the League A playoffs. There are two phases: the first is selection of the teams to compete and the second is the draw.

That starts with League D: the four best teams in League D are selected for the playoffs:

Then League C.

Then League B.

Then League A.

However, if there are fewer than four unqualified teams in any league, then the next best team in the overall ranking is selected, subject to the rule that a group winner from a lower league cannot face an opponent from a higher league. A group runner up absolutely can face a team from a higher division.

The key fact, though, is that after the selection of the teams, a draw takes place, if necessary, to allocate teams to each individual path. Also, the seeding is such that the semi finals are based on Nations League ranking: 1v4 and 2v3. That is, for the sake of argument, if we play the North as 2v3, we are guaranteed to be at home. If we are seeded 3 or 4, however, we are guaranteed to be away to whoever is ranked 1 or 2.

Say, for sake of argument, 2 League A teams do not qualify automatically and 5 League B teams do not qualify automatically (none being group winners), there were then be a draw with those 7 teams and the 1 League C team to draw the two playoff paths... with 4 League B teams in the League B playoffs, and 2 League A teams, 1 League B teams and 1 League C team in the League A playoffs, subject to the proviso that that League B team could not be a League B group winner.

Another point is this (from the euro 2020 regulations): "additional conditions may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA Executive Committee, including seeding principles and the possibility of final tournament host associations having to be drawn into different paths" ... that means there could be no draw if, for example, both ourselves and Germany (or the Netherlands) were in the playoffs, as we would have to be allocated a different path to them.

The main point I'm making is this: it's not the case that the best four League B teams automatically go into the League B playoffs, with the following teams in the League A playoffs. There will be some manner of a draw, depending on who exactly is there and who exactly is a host.

Basically, yeah. The playoffs will be tough and will probably involve having to win away from home to a higher ranked League B side.

We'd better qualify automatically, so.

Until a few days ago I'd assumed we'd have a play off two legs and that was it. But winning away!!! And then another game after that. 

 

I predict we won't qualify, Bisto.

You sound like something from Scooby Doo ffs. 

Why do you bother following the team with an attitude like that? Of course things have changed. We are set up far better than under O Neill and we actually tried to play against Denmark and Georgia. We had 28% possession in the playoff against Denmark away, only 24% in the Nations league game and 31% away to Georgia and 44% at home. That shows how bad things were and we have definitely changed under Mick. Gibraltar set up with no interest in scoring themselves but trying to stop us from scoring the lastnight.

If you look at the stats from O'Neill's games against Denmark when compared to McCarthy's then there does seem to be reason for slight optimism. 

I haven't even included the 5-1 play-off defeat because the stats are absolutely appalling and that was a bit of a shock result.

Possession: Denmark 72% Ireland 28%

Shots: Denmark 14 Ireland 8

Shots on target: Denmark 5 Ireland 2

Nations League Ireland 0-0 Denmark 

Possession: Ireland 34% Denmark 66%

Shots: Ireland 3 Denmark 15

Shots on target Ireland 1 Denmark 3

Nations League Denmark 0-0 Ireland

Possession: Denmark 76% Ireland 24%

Shots: Denmark 26 Ireland 3

Shots on target: Denmark 1 Ireland 0.

Euro qualifier Denmark 0-0 Ireland.

Possession: Denmark 62% Ireland 38%.

Shots: Denmark 18 Ireland 7

Shots on target: Denmark 3 Ireland 4.

Denmark had a decent amount of chances in the recent qualifier but I think as it was a much more open game then they were always going to have more clear cut chances than under O'Neill.

We actually finished the game with more shots on target and McClean had a great chance to win the match at the end.

Around the 40% mark is a respectable level of possession away to a superior team too.

McCarthy's Ireland have had four shots on target in one game against Denmark, in the three 0-0 draws we managed just 3 shots on target altogether. 

I do recall us having a few decent chances in the 5-1 drubbing but the majority of the stats from that game make for further negative reading for O'Neill vs McCarthy.

I'm not confident about this campaign, but we have definitely enjoyed a minor improvement under Mick and feel we'll be in contention going into the last game.