Can We Beat Wales In Cardiff ?

rolo wrote: Catherine Banneto wrote: Dalymount79 wrote: A draw against us will be no good for them and they may well be out of it by kick off if they don't beat Georgia. In that scenario ironically a draw against Moldova and we'd still be in with a shout going to Cardiff. We can beat them as they'll be looking for a win or out of it. It's going to be very tense no matter what happens on the 6th. If Wales drop points in Tbilisi than the Moldova game means nothing to us so long as we beat Wales. Yes but we'd surely like to be in a position where maybe, just maybe, a draw in Wales would be enough depending on results elsewhere. Also the negativity on here if we don't beat Moldova, it would be reflected in the media and in the stands, the atmosphere around the camp would be poison and we'd not beat Wales.  We need to be beating Moldova two or three nil next month.

A draw against Wales can't be enough, we lose all our points against Moldova in the "runner up rankings" meaning we would finish on 11 points, ie. the worst placed runner up.

The O'Shea wrote: rolo wrote: Catherine Banneto wrote: Dalymount79 wrote: A draw against us will be no good for them and they may well be out of it by kick off if they don't beat Georgia. In that scenario ironically a draw against Moldova and we'd still be in with a shout going to Cardiff. We can beat them as they'll be looking for a win or out of it. It's going to be very tense no matter what happens on the 6th. If Wales drop points in Tbilisi than the Moldova game means nothing to us so long as we beat Wales. Yes but we'd surely like to be in a position where maybe, just maybe, a draw in Wales would be enough depending on results elsewhere. Also the negativity on here if we don't beat Moldova, it would be reflected in the media and in the stands, the atmosphere around the camp would be poison and we'd not beat Wales.  We need to be beating Moldova two or three nil next month. A draw against Wales can't be enough, we lose all our points against Moldova in the "runner up rankings" meaning we would finish on 11 points, ie. the worst placed runner up.

If Wales draw in Tbilisi it sounds crazy but losing to Moldova might be a smart move because then their is a small chance that they could beat an Austria side that doesn't give a f**k meaning the 6 points against them counts...fantasy stuff but still.

Catherine Banneto wrote: If Wales draw in Tbilisi it sounds crazy but losing to Moldova might be a smart move because then their is a small chance that they could beat an Austria side that doesn't give a f**k meaning the 6 points against them counts...fantasy stuff but still.

rolo wrote: Catherine Banneto wrote: If Wales draw in Tbilisi it sounds crazy but losing to Moldova might be a smart move because then their is a small chance that they could beat an Austria side that doesn't give a f**k meaning the 6 points against them counts...fantasy stuff but still. You really are a stupid man.  Cathalthesmart my bollix.  Thick thread please.

Catherine Banneto wrote: rolo wrote: Catherine Banneto wrote: If Wales draw in Tbilisi it sounds crazy but losing to Moldova might be a smart move because then their is a small chance that they could beat an Austria side that doesn't give a f**k meaning the 6 points against them counts...fantasy stuff but still. You really are a stupid man.  Cathalthesmart my bollix.  Thick thread please. Okay im a f*cking idiot I completely messed up the math there!

It's not maths, if we lost to Moldova how would we have six points against.them -- ha ha

Can we? Of course.

It's possible but the bet is 1-1

The advantages we have:
Wales have a tough away match beforehand
They must go for the win
We are not expected to win

The disadvantages:
Bale
They are at home
They are coming into form

Catherine Banneto wrote: If Wales draw in Tbilisi it sounds crazy but losing to Moldova might be a smart move because then their is a small chance that they could beat an Austria side that doesn't give a f**k meaning the 6 points against them counts...fantasy stuff but still.

So if we beat Wales in all scenarios:

If we beat Moldova, they will finish bottom, and we still have 13 counting points (19-6 v Moldova = 13).
If we lose to Moldova and Georgia do finish bottom, we have 12 counting points (16-4 v Georgia = 12).
If we lose to Moldova and they still finish bottom, we have 13 counting points (16-3 v Moldova = 13).

There's no way we can beat Moldova and have Georgia finish bottom, which is what we'd really want (19-4 v Georgia = 15).

If Wales lose to Georgia and we draw with Moldova, giving a chance for Georgia to finish bottom, it would be marginally better, but literally only marginally, as we'd get the +2 GD from the Moldova games to count, as opposed to the +1 GD from the Georgia games. Otherwise, it counts for nothing.

So no, if Wales don't win, we still want a decent result. We also want to keep open the possibility, however slim, that a draw in Wales might be enough.