World Cup Qualification Group D Thread

SuperDave84 wrote: We have 17 yellows and no reds. Greece have 17 yellows and 3 reds (one straight, and two for two yellows). So if we win 3-0, we will be through, provided we don't do it in an incredibly undisciplined way. That words out as -17 fair play points for us, but -27 fair play points for Greece.

3-0

Edited by RKeane - 07 Oct 2017 at 9:49pm

djhegzy wrote: Righr so, greece can finish on 13 points now too like us, they only have +6 goal difference, and im sure a few of those were against the rock, catchable?

Greece have +7. They beat Gibraltar by 3 goals so they're on +4. We're on +1.

I dont know which is more impressive, your encyclopedic knowledge of European train options, or the super spreadsheet you must have on the go which by the looks of it includes fair play points! 

gazurtoids wrote: Hans Moleman wrote: SuperDave84 wrote: Sweden's goal difference is +10 already without the Luxembourg goals. They'll be grand I imagine. At least, I doubt they'll lose out on goal difference, if it comes to it. Also, they beat Belarus by a combined total of 8-0 (4-0 home and away). Once they went 7-0 on Luxembourg, they were in the same position, because they only beat Luxembourg 1-0 away. No reason for them to be "disappointed" for these goals not to count in the second place table. The Swedes destroyed Luxembourg to seal 2nd spot. Without these goals they were haeading for a make or break game against the Dutch away from home. Now it's a dead rubber. What a ridiculous load of cobblers ....why don't they even up the number groups to avoid this nonsense ......could easily be done with pre-qualifiers for the minnow minnows the same way it'd done for club tournaments

FrankosHereNow wrote: djhegzy wrote: Righr so, greece can finish on 13 points now too like us, they only have +6 goal difference, and im sure a few of those were against the rock, catchable? Greece have +7. They beat Gibraltar by 3 goals so they're on +4. We're on +1.

Exactly. I'm assuming they beat the rock on Tuesday and finish second.

Their results against Gibraltar won't count anyway.

Their record for second place is thus set, on 13 points, 9 scored, 5 conceded.

We have 10 points, 6 scored, 5 conceded.

So if we win 3-0, we end up on 13 points, 9 scored, 5 conceded, which is when the fair play record will come into it.

Incidentally, that now means group A doesn't matter at all, not even one little bit.

Literally the best case scenario there is a 6-0 win for the Netherlands over Sweden. That leaves the Swedes with a counting GD of +4 (17 scored, 13 conceded), so long as Luxembourg finish bottom there.

As Greece's record is already worse than that, and as the second placed team in that group will definitely have a better record than that, there is nothing to consider in that group.

Northern Ireland's record is currently +5, 10 scored, 5 conceded. We'd like them to ship a few tomorrow to make it a bit more interesting for us.

Denmark are currently +7 GD with a home game against Romania to come, so it would also be good if they lose by a hatful there, unlikely and all as that is.

Basic permutations:

Tomorrow:
Scotland not to win - that happens, we're grand with any win.
Norway to beat Northern Ireland by a few - if Norway win by one, that group won't matter, as the Greece group will provide a better out (they are +4, 9 scored, 5 conceded, NI are +5, 10 scored, 5 conceded at the minute). If Norway win by a few, then we may be able to overtake Northern Ireland on GD. They are +5, we are +1. If we are level on GD, chances are they'll take us on goals scored (not definitely though). We are 6 scored, 5 conceded, so a 1-0 loss for them and a 3-0 win for us and they still take us on goals scored (10/6, as opposed to 9/5).
Denmark are +7 GD - we need Montenegro not to win in Poland and Denmark to lose by a few - if they lose by anything less than four, it won't matter, as the Greece group will provide a better out.

Monday:
Us to win 3-0 - that happens, we're in the playoffs no matter what (well, assuming we retain a basic acquaintance with good discipline).
Ukraine and Croatia to draw - any win is then good enough for us.
Greece not to beat Gibraltar and Bosnia to beat Estonia - any win is then good enough for us.

That's the long and short of it. The Scotland one is thus basically it. Without it happening, we're close to f**ked.


Edited by SuperDave84 - 07 Oct 2017 at 10:30pm

Gut feeling says that the jocks finally get their act together tomorrow.

Thanks bud, you go from feeling optimistic to feeling flat. F**king rollercoaster of emotions and I haven't even got on the plane yet 

Edited by kearney304 - 07 Oct 2017 at 10:28pm