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Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.
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Roy Keane
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Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.

that's not what the polls say.
  
Nowcast Model (15/05):

LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7% 

LAB 26 Short. A coalition government with or without SNP would be possible.
Changes w/ GE2019.




Edited by colemanY2K - 17 May 2022 at 3:04pm
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Liam Brady
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Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.

that's not what the polls say.
  
Nowcast Model (15/05):

LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7% 

LAB 26 Short. A coalition government with or without SNP would be possible.
Changes w/ GE2019.



I wouldn't put much money on him winning. He'd need a coalition with SNP to do so. The prospect of which increase the Tory vote. Ever this. Ed Militant fa Ed similar numbers in 2015.
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Roy Keane
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Points: 14959 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote colemanY2K Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2022 at 4:13pm
Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.

that's not what the polls say.
  
Nowcast Model (15/05):

LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7% 

LAB 26 Short. A coalition government with or without SNP would be possible.
Changes w/ GE2019.



I wouldn't put much money on him winning. He'd need a coalition with SNP to do so. The prospect of which increase the Tory vote. Ever this. Ed Militant fa Ed similar numbers in 2015.

impossible to say at this stage how the election would pan out. however the fact is starmer - and labour as a consequence - have improved their position over the past two years. they are far more likely to form a government. 

the tories at the current predicted seat share of 254 haven't a hope of pulling back enough ground in the next two years to form a government. its all about self-preservation and tory mp's in danger of losing their seats are likely to make a move on boris in a desperate bid to reset the narrative. for many it'll be in vain.
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.

that's not what the polls say.
  
Nowcast Model (15/05):

LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7% 

LAB 26 Short. A coalition government with or without SNP would be possible.
Changes w/ GE2019.



I wouldn't put much money on him winning. He'd need a coalition with SNP to do so. The prospect of which increase the Tory vote. Ever this. Ed Militant fa Ed similar numbers in 2015.

impossible to say at this stage how the election would pan out. however the fact is starmer - and labour as a consequence - have improved their position over the past two years. they are far more likely to form a government. 

the tories at the current predicted seat share of 254 haven't a hope of pulling back enough ground in the next two years to form a government. its all about self-preservation and tory mp's in danger of losing their seats are likely to make a move on boris in a desperate bid to reset the narrative. for many it'll be in vain.

They increased vote share inevitably as Labour areas in Midlands and north went blue in last GE temporarily as those areas were ardently pro brexit but were always likely to switch back to Labour once brexit was delivered as Labour is so strong in such areas. The Labour policy under Corbyn of rerunning the referendum was disastrous. 

Overall, Labours results in Locals were underwhelming.
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Points: 14959 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote colemanY2K Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2022 at 7:19pm
Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.

that's not what the polls say.
  
Nowcast Model (15/05):

LAB: 300 (+98) - 38.4%
CON: 254 (-111) - 34.0%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.8%
LDM: 22 (+11) - 11.5%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.0%
RFM: 0 (=) - 2.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.7% 

LAB 26 Short. A coalition government with or without SNP would be possible.
Changes w/ GE2019.



I wouldn't put much money on him winning. He'd need a coalition with SNP to do so. The prospect of which increase the Tory vote. Ever this. Ed Militant fa Ed similar numbers in 2015.

impossible to say at this stage how the election would pan out. however the fact is starmer - and labour as a consequence - have improved their position over the past two years. they are far more likely to form a government. 

the tories at the current predicted seat share of 254 haven't a hope of pulling back enough ground in the next two years to form a government. its all about self-preservation and tory mp's in danger of losing their seats are likely to make a move on boris in a desperate bid to reset the narrative. for many it'll be in vain.

They increased vote share inevitably as Labour areas in Midlands and north went blue in last GE temporarily as those areas were ardently pro brexit but were always likely to switch back to Labour once brexit was delivered as Labour is so strong in such areas. The Labour policy under Corbyn of rerunning the referendum was disastrous. 

Overall, Labours results in Locals were underwhelming.



i disagree, the facts speak for themselves. labour picked up 238 seats whereas the tories disasterously lost 399. labour wiped the floor in london, toppling tory councils in wandsworth, westminster and barnet. in scotland they are once again the second largest party by number of council seats. in wales the tories went on to lose their only council. that's not exactly what i would call an underwhelming performance.

i found the Guardian's analysis below quite interesting...

The swing to Labour since May 2021 was about 6-7% in England outside London, which puts the party a respectable but not overwhelming 3-4 points ahead of the Conservatives if translated into a national share of the vote. It is Labour’s second-biggest lead since 2001, after Ed Miliband’s peak year of 2012.

The Labour advantage in 2022 is perhaps greater than it might seem from the relatively small headline lead in vote share. One reason is that, in contrast to, say, the 2016 or 2014 local elections, the right is more or less united behind the Conservatives rather than split with Ukip. The Tories no longer have that reserve army of voters. The centre-left is divided between Labour, Lib Dem and Green. While this gets in the way of building a solid popular vote lead and winning council seats in these elections, it does give Labour a pool of potentially friendly anti-Tory tactical voters from which to draw.

The other positive sign for Labour is that, at first glance, the votes are appearing where Labour will find them useful. Labour’s support in the 2019 general election was very unhelpfully distributed; on a uniform swing from that result it would take a landslide popular vote of 1997 proportions in order to give Labour a bare majority in the House of Commons. The fairly low swing in the north might be enough, given many of the former “red wall” seats are still marginal; Labour’s showing in southern and eastern marginals such as Ipswich and Southampton Itchen was stronger, and the swing since 2011 was biggest of all in some parts of the Midlands.

The party will also take comfort from an (anticipated) fair showing in Scotland, where it also needs to make parliamentary gains.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/06/labour-local-elections-results-analysis
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.
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Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.
odious Tory bastard. Still a large field!
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Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.

Nicknamed “pike ‘
by any chance 
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that'll be another by-election then. be great if he was from a marginal, the tories are already odds on to lose the two by-elections in june, a hat trick by the end of the year would be nice.

Edited by colemanY2K - 17 May 2022 at 8:23pm
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Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.

Nicknamed “pike ‘
by any chance 

The 'Action Man' of Brexit LOL
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Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.

Nicknamed “pike ‘
by any chance 

The 'Action Man' of Brexit LOL

that would be sweet 
'Irish' Songs for an Irish team - no SPL EPL generic sh*te
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Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by Tyronebhoy Tyronebhoy wrote:

Sincerely hope the name I'm hearing for the Tory MP arrested on rape and other sex charges is true. Couldn't happen to a more odious wee bastard.

Nicknamed “pike ‘
by any chance 

The 'Action Man' of Brexit LOL

that would be sweet 
thick as mince, can't see it being him though.
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

An entire table covered with dead cats isn't going to save Bojo's hide come the May 5th elections and the release of the Sue Gray report.

And?

some historical context - which seems to be lost in today's impatient world - is that thatcher was ousted a full 6 months after the disastrous local elections in may 1990 i.e. it didn't happen the following week or two after the locals. 

the next general election is at most 2 years away. tory mp's fearful of losing their seats - and there's many according to the polls - will likely try to remove boris before too long. his leadership is now a liability.

For that you'd need a viable opposition alternative. Starmer certainly isn't that.


this isn't about the opposition this is about tory mp's trying to save their own skin.



Edited by colemanY2K - 31 May 2022 at 11:34am
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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D-Day for Boris … would an irony if baby Churchill was ousted today. I know there are lots of red wall tories s***inf themselves and might go against him but think he’ll survive.
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I'll be hoping he survives and can cause more damage to the Tory party.
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Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

D-Day for Boris … would an irony if baby Churchill was ousted today. I know there are lots of red wall tories s***inf themselves and might go against him but think he’ll survive.

the red tops will be disgusted the news wasn't broken last night before the print deadline. a wet dream it would have been for headline writers. 
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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