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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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Things are very tight at the top of the table at the minute. I'm not doing a full post on all the possibilities, in particular the potential games where there are less than four teams on 10-5. As it stands, there are six teams on 9-5. Two of those teams are playing each other (Borussia's Broncos and ParkysUprightChallenge). As such, there is a chance of five teams finishing 10-5, if the other four teams also win. If that happens, the head-to-heads are as follows, in each case: If Borussia's Broncos win: Hooked on a Thielen 3-2 (1-0 v Borussia's Broncos) Borussia's Broncos 3-2 (0-1 v Hooked on a Thielen) The Night Trains 3-3 You Like That 2-3 (1-0 v Marshawn of the Dead) Marshawn of the Dead 2-3 (0-1 v You Like That) If ParkysUprightChallenge win: ParkysUprightChallenge 4-1 Marshawn of the Dead 2-2 The Night Trains 3-4 Hooked on a Thielen 2-3 (1-0 v You Like That) You Like That 2-3 (0-1 v Hooked on a Thielen) I don't have the time or inclination to do all the other combinations if only three teams finish 10-5 and what happens then with the 9-6 teams, because there are so many of them. Anyway what each team needs is as follows: Hooked on a Thielen - already qualified (already won, in no matter who wins the BB v PUC game) Borussia's Broncos - win and in ParkysUprightChallenge - win and in The Night Trains - win and in (no matter who wins the BB v PUC game) You Like That - win and EITHER (a) Borussia's Broncos win or (b) The Night Trains lose or (c) Marshawn of the Dead lose Marshawn of the Dead - win and EITHER (a) ParkysUprightChallenge win or (b) The Night Trains lose or (c) You Like That lose Edited by SuperDave84 - 20 Dec 2021 at 10:07pm |
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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Okay an update to the above, following the results last night. Hooked on a Thielen - already qualified The Night Trains - already qualified Plus the winner of Borussia's Broncos v ParkysUprightChallenge Now, there is a possibility that three teams will finish on 10-5 and then four teams on 9-6 (i.e. if Super Marino beat You Like That and if Marshawn of the Dead also loses). In that situation, the tables would look as follows: If Borussia's Broncos win: The Night Trains 10-5 (2-1 head to head, 1-1 v The Night Trains, don't know how first v second is sorted) Hooked on a Thielen 10-5 (2-1 head to head, 1-1 v The Night Trains, don't know how first v second is sorted) Borussia's Broncos 10-5 (0-2 head to head) Super Marino 9-6 (4-2 head to head) and into the playoffs ParkysUpright Challenge 9-6 (2-2 head to head, 1-0 v You Like That) You Like That 9-6 (2-2 head to head, 0-1 v ParkysUprightChallenge) Marshawn of the Dead 9-6 (1-3 head to head) If ParkysUprightChallenge win: ParkysUprightChallenge 10-5 (2-1 head to head) The Night Trains 10-5 (2-2 head to head) Hooked on a Thielen 10-5 (1-2 head to head) Borussia's Broncos 9-6 (4-0 head to head) and into the playoffs You Like That 9-6 (2-2 head to head) Super Marino 9-6 (2-3 head to head) Marshawn of the Dead 9-6 (1-4 head to head) SO, what does each side need: The Night Trains: already qualified Hooked on a Thielen: already qualified ParkysUprightChallenge: in with a win, out with a loss Borussia's Broncos: in with a win OR with a loss AND (a) Super Marino win AND (b) Marshawn of the Dead loses Marshawn of the dead: win and EITHER OR BOTH (a) ParkysUprightChallenge win AND/OR(b) You Like That lose, OUT with a loss You Like That: win and EITHER OR BOTH (a) Borussia's Broncos win AND/OR (b) Marshawn of the Dead lose, OUT with a loss Super Marino: beat You Like That AND Borussia's Broncos beat ParkysUprightChallenge AND Marshawn of the Dead loses (Super Marino needs all three of these to happen) I think that's it all.... Edited by SuperDave84 - 21 Dec 2021 at 4:09pm |
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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Trojan work đź‘Ź
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9795 |
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That's a day well spend SD
I'm fighting to avoid finishing bottom of the league for the first time in our 10 year history. Bad season
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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I've double checked all these and they all seem right, and here's the state of play: ParkysUprightChallenge v Borussia's Broncos: The Broncos have two players to play and only 12.90 to overcome, I'd make the Broncos prohibitive 80/20 favourites. Marshawn of the Dead: Up against The green wizards who have a few to play, but Marshawn of the Dead have a healthy healthy lead, again I'd make them 80/20 favourites. Super Marino v You Like That: both have players to play and Super Marino have the points in the bank but don't have the projected lead. I'd make You Like That marginal 60/40 favourites here. ParkysUprightChallenge: in with a win, out with a loss - 20% chance of winning, so 20% chance of progress Borussia's Broncos: in with a win OR with a loss AND (a) Super Marino win AND (b) Marshawn of the Dead loses - 80% chance of winning plus the chance of progress if they lose = 81.6% chance of progress total (0.8 + (0.2 x 0.4 x 0.2) = 0.816) Marshawn of the dead: win and EITHER OR BOTH (a) ParkysUprightChallenge win AND/OR (b) You Like That lose, OUT with a loss - 80% chance of winning plus they need other results to go their way (52% likelihood on the above figures) = 41.6% chance of progress total (0.8 x (1 - (0.8 x 0.6)) = 0.416) You Like That: win and EITHER OR BOTH (a) Borussia's Broncos win AND/OR (b) Marshawn of the Dead lose, OUT with a loss - 60% chance of winning plus they need other results to go their way (84% likelihood on the above figures) = 50.4% chance of progress (0.6 x (1 - (0.2 x 0.4)) = 0.504) Super
Marino: beat You Like That AND Borussia's Broncos beat
ParkysUprightChallenge AND Marshawn of the Dead loses (Super Marino
needs all three of these to happen) - 6.4% chance of progress (0.4 x 0.8 x 0.2 = 0.064) And checking my figures, those add up to 200, which is correct, because there are two places in play. If you disagree with my rough estimates of which teams are likely to progress, you can adjust the probabilities accordingly. I think the two 80/20s could be on the generous side to the underdogs tbh.
Edited by SuperDave84 - 21 Dec 2021 at 4:37pm |
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10608 |
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"I'd make the Broncos prohibitive 80/20 favourites."
That's my Broncos and not the real ones as we all know how that would end unfortunately!
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9795 |
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Congrats to SuperDave on his first Fantasy SuperBowl
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9795 |
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After 10 years of this league running, I'm proposing we move it to a Dynasty league next year. I've started playing Dynasty with other friends a few years back and enjoy it far more than Regular/Redraft league.
It starts off as a regular league, we have a draft to pick all the players, but then at the end of each season, you hold your squad onto the next year. Each August, we just draft the new years rookies, which can be added to your squads. Same scoring, head to head and then playoffs. Needs a little more commitment to stay involved for a few years, if you've a bad team, you need to rebuild through the draft etc. Bit more excitement with trades and trading future draft picks etc. Anyone interested in joining and giving it a go, here's the link. Wont be drafting till the Summer obviously but sign up if you've an interest. |
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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I am going to drop out, so a spare space if anyone wants to join
Nothing to do with the changes, just fed up with it.
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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Nevermind, myself and two the lads back, will try the other two
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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And they're in too
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notpropaganda73
Liam Brady Joined: 17 Feb 2016 Location: Donegal Status: Offline Points: 1003 |
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I'd be happy to join if there's a spot
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10608 |
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I'm back in.
Edited by Borussia - 03 Aug 2022 at 9:23am |
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cliffrichard
Liam Brady Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1216 |
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I'll also join this year if there's space.
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Touts Out!
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9795 |
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Good lads, back for another year so, we'll leave it as a normal redraft league, Dynasty is fun but a lot of work
1) Shedite 2) Nvidic 3) Nvidic's mate 4) Nvidic's other mate 5) notpropogand 6) Borussia 7) cliffrichard 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) Drafting some evening 5/6/7th September (kickoff 8th September)
Edited by Shedite - 08 Aug 2022 at 2:58pm |
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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Nice one. Give of us, myself, JacksHat and Kirky from here, two from the réal world
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Greener92
Davey Langan Joined: 14 Oct 2021 Status: Offline Points: 778 |
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Interested in joining if there’s a spare spot going when all the regulars have committed
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 18938 |
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We still going ahead with this?
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