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Cabra Hoop View Drop Down
Roy Keane
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Points: 10829 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cabra Hoop Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2019 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Dunno whether it means anything (probably not), but apparently of the last five teams to finish 2nd in the PL by a point or GD, four have gone on to win the title the following season. 

Which may be related to another idea, that "The best teams always win the league" (or "The table never lies").

Matthew Benham, owner of Brentford and FC Midtjylland is as well qualified through business, statistics, gambling and football as anyone, and he disputes this idea.

He always says that football is the most random of major sports, where any game can come down to a single incident, such as an unlucky bounce, missed penalty or incorrect refereeing decision etc. And in a close run contest, between two closely matched sides, one or two games can actually make the difference, even at the end of 38 games.

An obvious example is Gerrard's slip against Chelsea, but more recently if you look at City's 2-1 victory over Liverpool in January, Stones managed to clear Mane's effort off the line with 1 cm to spare. Had that one gone over, the title would have been Liverpool's.

Which is hardly proof that City are "better" than Liverpool, but Benham reckons that you may need as much to monitor teams over as much as 100 games, to ascertain just which is the best team over any given period within that time.

Which in turn may explain how obviously dominant teams like Bayern, Juve or PSG can win their league every season, but so few English teams manage to retain the title even for one more season.

P.S. Noting that the team which gains the most points isn't necessarily the "best" team, is not the same as saying they don't deserve it.
Equally. City would have won the league easier if Mahrez scored the pen in Anfield and Liverpool hadnt been gifted points by Pickford, Speroni and couple of other keepers...
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From memory, the Stones clearance was midway through the first half. Who's to know what would have happened had it gone in.

No doubt there are dozens of fine margin incidents and decisions throughout a season that have big consequences on the final positions in the league table.
 
As it gets closer to the end of the season this is maximized, and especially this season when Liverpool and City were so consistently brilliant in the run in. The slightest mistake by a player in either team would have cost them the title
 
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I don't recall Man City having many last minute winners. Where they did the season before last. Liverpool maxed out all their luck and had an incredible season. 

City just seemed to be complacent in losing a few games they shouldn't have.
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Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

 Equally. City would have won the league easier if Mahrez scored the pen in Anfield

Of course. But in a contest between two obviously closely-matched teams, ultimately what separated them came down to the two games between them, where City took four points and Liverpool one, irrespective of their other 72 games. 

And if a proper statistician/analyst like Benham were to assess those two games, he might conclude that Liverpool were "unlucky". (Might not, of course - he might conclude that City should have won both, for instance).

Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

... and Liverpool hadnt been gifted points by Pickford, Speroni and couple of other keepers...
I suspect City were also the recipient of "gifted points" by opponents in their games, too.
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Roy Keane
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Manchester City looked a very demoralised team yesterday

Liverpool are all anybody is talking about

The unstoppable red juggernaut rolls on

Onwards to Madrid where the rightful Kings of Europe will reclaim their throne
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A disappointing end to a great season. Just came up against a better side, 14 wins in a row at the end of the season is phenomenal. Teams are always going to drop points throughout the season, nobody would've expected City to lose some of the games they did. We'd a few bad draws when going through a bad patch but still managed to pick up a few points that kept us in touch. 

Hopefully we can add 2/3 players to try overtake City & have Ox back too. Great to have the CL final to look forward to, just better win it now
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Must win game.
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I’d be very surprised if we see 2 teams get plus 90 pts next season.

Interesting to see what both teams do over the summer.

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Originally posted by Bob Hoskins Bob Hoskins wrote:

I don't recall Man City having many last minute winners. Where they did the season before last. Liverpool maxed out all their luck and had an incredible season. 

City just seemed to be complacent in losing a few games they shouldn't have.


I read somewhere (can't remember where, maybe the BBC) that Liverpool had the biggest difference between points & expected points, which seems to be some sort of stat based off expected goals, which is based upon the quality of chances they had.

City also had more points than expected points but they were only something like 6 above their expected points as opposed to 14.

I'd still have City as 4/5 favourites for next season.


Edited by SuperDave84 - 13 May 2019 at 4:50pm
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by Bob Hoskins Bob Hoskins wrote:

I don't recall Man City having many last minute winners. Where they did the season before last. Liverpool maxed out all their luck and had an incredible season. 

City just seemed to be complacent in losing a few games they shouldn't have.


I read somewhere (can't remember where, maybe the BBC) that Liverpool had the biggest difference between points & expected points, which seems to be some sort of stat based off expected goals, which is based upon the quality of chances they had.

City also had more points than expected points but they were only something like 6 above their expected points as opposed to 14.

I'd still have City as 4/5 favourites for next season.

Sometimes you make your own luck but Liverpool were gifted some easy points:

Spurs/Lloris - 2pts 
Everton/Pickford - 2pts
Palace/Speroni - 2pts

Forget Mahrez peno miss or last minute winners. These were all unusual circumstances that won’t happen again. 

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Hard luck Liverpool, a brilliant side all season but City just too good and missing arguably their best player most of the season. 

At least you have the champions league final to look forward to. 



Edited by Sono - 13 May 2019 at 6:18pm
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The absolute bollocks talk on here now, if me aunt had balls she’d be me uncle shoite, city won the league because they were the best team and proved it by pegging back a Liverpool team who had a very healthy points advantage at the midway stage but then fcked it up, and then city proceeded to push on on a fantastic run , the scousers Fckin pissed themselves great team me aunts gowl
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Originally posted by Neil Armstrong Neil Armstrong wrote:

Originally posted by DUBLIN DOC DUBLIN DOC wrote:

Wow what a night, not the match, the quare wan is a bit of a Liverpool fan and convinced me to go out to watch it in the local, as I thought full of coonts in Ali express Liverpool tops screaming at the Telly box including the quare wan, anyway she had too many drinks after the event celebrating but fck me (and she did several times) the carry on of her when we were getting the taxi home, she would not stay easy in the taxi, she completely ignored the drivers plea for her to wear the seatbelt as she could not wait till we got home to start on me, sitting on me lap pulling the townies off me the poor fcker driving didn’t take his eyes of the rear mirror I mean she was getting full on as we arrived home, anyhow it was bleeding carnage in the house most of the night her prancing all over me wearing nothing but her knock off liverpool top (don’t know how many times I wiped me flute in it, it was like a well used snot rag when I seen it in the wash basket this morning) she got up early and off to work big smile on her boat, I fckin dread what will go on if they win the fckin cup my balls are completely drained and my daisy root sore as fck now LOL

Over three weeks to the Final lad you should be refilled by then LOL
I have been placed on the bench since yesterday as I kept humming bluemoon to the quare wan, she has withdrawn her services for the near future I’m fckin delighted, she was planning a mad wan for last night if the victims had of won the league, she wanted to go out to howth and bale onto one of the trawlers out there and have me sing ferry across the Mersey as she fcked me on the bow, mad coont she will probably try this if they win the cup ffs Deffo be arrested out there
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Well what an unbelievable campaign in the premier league

I didnt think for a minute that liverpool would run them that close, an incerdible effort and can only say of how proud i am of the team. Overall the better side won the league so no compaints at all from me.

Have to go on and bring the CL home now, otherwise this great season will be a distant memory in 6 months time
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Originally posted by Gavintheslob Gavintheslob wrote:

Well what an unbelievable campaign in the premier league

I didnt think for a minute that liverpool would run them that close, an incerdible effort and can only say of how proud i am of the team. Overall the better side won the league so no compaints at all from me.

Have to go on and bring the CL home now, otherwise this great season will be a distant memory in 6 months time
 
For argument sakes, they lose the CL Final, how will Liverpool fans judge the season.
Fantastic effort on both fronts but realistically the hunt for the holy grail goes into it's 30th year, and so near, but so far in the CL front again.
I do think they'll hammer Spurs in the final but just curious from a fans perspective
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Originally posted by ChesterCopperpot ChesterCopperpot wrote:

Originally posted by Gavintheslob Gavintheslob wrote:

Well what an unbelievable campaign in the premier league

I didnt think for a minute that liverpool would run them that close, an incerdible effort and can only say of how proud i am of the team. Overall the better side won the league so no compaints at all from me.

Have to go on and bring the CL home now, otherwise this great season will be a distant memory in 6 months time
 
For argument sakes, they lose the CL Final, how will Liverpool fans judge the season.
Fantastic effort on both fronts but realistically the hunt for the holy grail goes into it's 30th year, and so near, but so far in the CL front again.
I do think they'll hammer Spurs in the final but just curious from a fans perspective
Be disappointed to be honest. Huge improvement from last year and couldn't have done much more in the league but to lose back to back CL finals would be tough. Can take getting beat by Real with them on a 3 in a row but losing to Spurs would be a sickener. 

Few signings for next season and hopefully they can push City again as the others seem miles behind. Be a walk in the park for City if they dont
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Originally posted by Croftman Croftman wrote:

Actually why did the goal go to VAR?
Every goal goes to VAR. They were investigating Wijnaldum for a "punch" on the Barcelona keeper. He went down clutching his face when Wijnaldum took the ball off him. There was no punch of course and therefore no action was taken. 

Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Planning will see it as a moral victory as City only won it by 1 point and not by 12 as many pundits were predicting at the start. I wonder is he going to reveal his dossier of incorrect refereeing decisions for every club over the season.
 
Hard to see anyone other than City and Liverpool fighting it out again next season.
I think Klopp will try to sign a creative midfielder this summer. That's all they've lacked really IMO.

This was the season when City were widely forecast to be crowned champions well before the spring solstice. Instead the title race went all the way to the bitter end, and unlike last year, City needed every point they got to get to the finish line first. It isn't a moral victory for Liverpool, it is a reminder that pundits and public alike should not be so dismissive of everyone else in the league.

Last weekend in La Liga, a penalty was wrongly awarded and a red card to go with it. Fortunately they have VAR, so the decisions were overturned on the spot and justice was done. I won't publish my log of every ref screw up in the EPL this season that VAR would have sorted out. Attention to detail doesn't go down well here. But what I will say is, on the final weekend where we have to tolerate incompetent backward officiating, at least three serious errors were added to the total, bringing the toll for the season to well in excess of the hundred mark. It may be long overdue, but VAR is now here, and teams will get only the decisions they should get from now on. 

Klopp now has the best win percentage of any Liverpool coach who has  been there more than 100 games, the lowest loss rate, and the most goals per game. Quite a contrast from 18 months ago, when he was told on this very thread that he was making no progress, was worse than Rodgers, taking the club backwards, while vital away results in Europe should be compared to legovers under the influence of the devils buttermilk. He's responded with 2 unbeaten home league seasons, 97 points this season, and  back to back European Cup finals, so he knows what he's doing. Even Hamann has finally come round. 
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LOL The dossier, the fooking dossier, id forgotten about that LOL
Who could possibly have guessed that you wouldn’t end up publishing your forensically detailed document outlining every refereeing error this season? You’re great craic altogether Planning 
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