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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2013 at 8:56pm
z

Edited by fear-glas - 20 Nov 2020 at 12:12am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 11:57am
Anyone any good at demand forecasting??
 
 


Edited by seanyshuffler - 17 Apr 2013 at 12:25pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hoosay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 12:19pm
Can't access that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 12:25pm
Using annual data for 1935 to 1995, an estimate was made of the
demand function for cigarettes in the United States. The resulting
regression equation was estimated:
Log Q = -1.55 - 0.71 log P + 3.08 log A - 0.09 log I + 0.14 log Pc - 5.10 C
(-0.26) (1.18) (-0.89) (0.92) (-1.19)
Q = annual cigarette consumption.
P = average price of cigarettes.
A = total cigarette advertising.
I = per capita income.
Pc = average price of cigars.
C = a variable that equals 1 if the year under consideration is after
the American Cancer Society issues a report in 1953 linking
cigarette smoking with cancer and 0 otherwise.
The standard errors are shown in parentheses.
The value of R2 is 0.91.
(1) Interpret the estimated demand function for cigarettes.
(2) Conduct tests to determine the validity of the model.
(3) What implications do these results have for firms in the
industry?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hoosay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 12:29pm
Jaysus. I think I preferred when I couldn't read it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WindBag Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 1:13pm
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Using annual data for 1935 to 1995, an estimate was made of the
demand function for cigarettes in the United States. The resulting
regression equation was estimated:
Log Q = -1.55 - 0.71 log P + 3.08 log A - 0.09 log I + 0.14 log Pc - 5.10 C
(-0.26) (1.18) (-0.89) (0.92) (-1.19)
Q = annual cigarette consumption.
P = average price of cigarettes.
A = total cigarette advertising.
I = per capita income.
Pc = average price of cigars.
C = a variable that equals 1 if the year under consideration is after
the American Cancer Society issues a report in 1953 linking
cigarette smoking with cancer and 0 otherwise.
The standard errors are shown in parentheses.
The value of R2 is 0.91.
(1) Interpret the estimated demand function for cigarettes.
(2) Conduct tests to determine the validity of the model.
(3) What implications do these results have for firms in the
industry?
 
As much as I love maths, the model doesn't appropriately cater for changes in society i.e. recession and changes in human nature...no longer cool to smoke.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 1:16pm
Originally posted by WindBag WindBag wrote:

Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Using annual data for 1935 to 1995, an estimate was made of the
demand function for cigarettes in the United States. The resulting
regression equation was estimated:
Log Q = -1.55 - 0.71 log P + 3.08 log A - 0.09 log I + 0.14 log Pc - 5.10 C
(-0.26) (1.18) (-0.89) (0.92) (-1.19)
Q = annual cigarette consumption.
P = average price of cigarettes.
A = total cigarette advertising.
I = per capita income.
Pc = average price of cigars.
C = a variable that equals 1 if the year under consideration is after
the American Cancer Society issues a report in 1953 linking
cigarette smoking with cancer and 0 otherwise.
The standard errors are shown in parentheses.
The value of R2 is 0.91.
(1) Interpret the estimated demand function for cigarettes.
(2) Conduct tests to determine the validity of the model.
(3) What implications do these results have for firms in the
industry?
 
As much as I love maths, the model doesn't appropriately cater for changes in society i.e. recession and changes in human nature...no longer cool to smoke.
Do you know how to do this part by any chance?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WindBag Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Apr 2013 at 2:31pm
Build a case to disprove it
 
How much did cigarette consumption drop after the smoking ban and see if you can see a graph and extrapolate this to 2014.
IMO a good guide would be looking at government policy..is Health, core to this plan? If so, have they stated that they will raise tax on cigarettes more?
To mathematically disprove, just get one of the variables critical to the equation and disprove it (highlight wide deviation percentage)
(i) Cigarette advertising..this is dropping exponentially around the world, just highlight the drop in numbers
(ii) Per Capita income has dropped dramatically in last 4 yrs
(iii) I cannot quantify a 'No Longer Cool' factor
 
But if I was I would go between 0-1....... 0 being Soccerc and 1 being Eire32...QED
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ShayGivensBum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 2013 at 11:46am
ConfusedConfused - my question was waaaayyyyyyy easier
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2013 at 4:49pm
A proposal to increase excise taxes on alcohol by €1 to save lives will raise the price of a unit of alcohol from €4 to €5 (assumption that all the tax increase is passed on to the consumers).  The increase in price will reduce the quantity consumed from 200m units to 180m units.  Graph the demand curve.  Calculate and explain the change in consumer surplus.
    
 
Would the change in consumer surplus be 190?
 
Area of rectangle = €1x 180m=180
Area of triangle = €1 x 20m (1/2) =10
 
Change in consumer surplus = area of rectangle + area of triangle
 
Am I doing it right?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2013 at 8:08pm
Tell them to go and fook themselves as its expensive enough to drink in this country
I dont email the count anymore, its been 9 months : ( He even sent me a YBIG scarf for my Birthday
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2013 at 8:17pm
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

A proposal to increase excise taxes on alcohol by €1 to save lives will raise the price of a unit of alcohol from €4 to €5 (assumption that all the tax increase is passed on to the consumers).  The increase in price will reduce the quantity consumed from 200m units to 180m units.  Graph the demand curve.  Calculate and explain the change in consumer surplus.
    
 
Would the change in consumer surplus be 190?
 
Area of rectangle = €1x 180m=180
Area of triangle = €1 x 20m (1/2) =10
 
Change in consumer surplus = area of rectangle + area of triangle
 
Am I doing it right?


how do they know how much it will reduce the demand by. What metric are they using to calculate the amount consumed on a hypothetical situation Wink
AKA pedantic kunt
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 8:09am
Bump
Have an exam in 90mins and would like to know if I'm doing this correct? Anyone?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RogerMilla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 8:11am
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Bump
Have an exam in 90mins and would like to know if I'm doing this correct? Anyone?
 
 
get off the fcuking forum and study and ring one of your classmates for the answer FFS
The first time the Devil made me do it. The second time I did it on my own.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 9:21am
Originally posted by RogerMilla RogerMilla wrote:

Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Bump
Have an exam in 90mins and would like to know if I'm doing this correct? Anyone?
 
 
get off the fcuking forum and study and ring one of your classmates for the answer FFS

 
LOL
I dont email the count anymore, its been 9 months : ( He even sent me a YBIG scarf for my Birthday
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 9:23am
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Bump
Have an exam in 90mins and would like to know if I'm doing this correct? Anyone?

jesus christ, if you are coming to ybig for an answer to something on your course you are fcked.  how do you know someone on here could not totally take the piss out of you and give you a bullsh*t answer.  


AKA pedantic kunt
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WindBag Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 9:55am
E=M see squared!
 
If baldy is asking instead of anwering, you are what the french call...proper fooked
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2013 at 1:12pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Bump
Have an exam in 90mins and would like to know if I'm doing this correct? Anyone?

jesus christ, if you are coming to ybig for an answer to something on your course you are fcked.  how do you know someone on here could not totally take the piss out of you and give you a bullsh*t answer.  


If your unable to solve the answer there is no need to take it out on me.  Maybe you should vent your frustration in some other way.Big smile
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