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Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic

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sid waddell View Drop Down
Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 6:56pm
Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

The item on this morning was in relation to what products are essential and what are not. Tesco saying period products are not essential is a joke really.  Costs for kids not deemed as essential also.
Surey that can be discussed without any debate about the reasons for it. This is exactly the problem with the media here. 

They were discussing the measures and the inconsistencies and how that was leading to fatigue and lack of buy as you can buy vodka but you can’t buy a child’s coat and that these inconsistent rules lead to people playing their part and coming up with their own rules some which they obey and some they don’t.   I think it’s perfectly fine for this morning to discuss that.   If it’s siloed off on to newsnight only a select amount of people see and hear it.   Part of gay Byrnes brilliance was how his radio show and the late late mixed the light and the shade and as a result reached more people.   The segregation of topics and shows has actually been a backward step imo and leads to less solidarity.    
I disagree. Not only does discussing serious matters on a lighthearted television shows demean their seriousness, but ony the soundbites filter down. Tabloid slants on serious things are very dangerous.

I never really listened to or watched Gay Byrne that much as I took a dislike to his patronising manner at a young age, but Ireland seems to love these mixed shows where you talk about the war in Syria, Puck Fair and an interview with Stephen Kenny, all done by the same host. It seems  to undermine each issue in turn in the process.

I want a return to shows like this

It shows that major issues can be tackled in children's television slots by challenging major celebrities

Hard hitting current affairs analysis from CBBC


Never saw that Botham interview before. Bloody brilliant. Always thought he was a cock!
He absolutely is but it is remarkable television all the same, I would give him a modicum of credit for allowing himself to be subjected to such questioning

There were some real life David Brent bits in there, 6:20 especially




"ONE-NIL!" - David Coleman, George Hamilton - "Finding The Words - The Art of Commentary"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lenny82 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 7:02pm
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

The item on this morning was in relation to what products are essential and what are not. Tesco saying period products are not essential is a joke really.  Costs for kids not deemed as essential also.
Surey that can be discussed without any debate about the reasons for it. This is exactly the problem with the media here. 

They were discussing the measures and the inconsistencies and how that was leading to fatigue and lack of buy as you can buy vodka but you can’t buy a child’s coat and that these inconsistent rules lead to people playing their part and coming up with their own rules some which they obey and some they don’t.   I think it’s perfectly fine for this morning to discuss that.   If it’s siloed off on to newsnight only a select amount of people see and hear it.   Part of gay Byrnes brilliance was how his radio show and the late late mixed the light and the shade and as a result reached more people.   The segregation of topics and shows has actually been a backward step imo and leads to less solidarity.    
I disagree. Not only does discussing serious matters on a lighthearted television shows demean their seriousness, but ony the soundbites filter down. Tabloid slants on serious things are very dangerous.

I never really listened to or watched Gay Byrne that much as I took a dislike to his patronising manner at a young age, but Ireland seems to love these mixed shows where you talk about the war in Syria, Puck Fair and an interview with Stephen Kenny, all done by the same host. It seems  to undermine each issue in turn in the process.

I want a return to shows like this

It shows that major issues can be tackled in children's television slots by challenging major celebrities

Hard hitting current affairs analysis from CBBC


Never saw that Botham interview before. Bloody brilliant. Always thought he was a cock!
He absolutely is but it is remarkable television all the same, I would give him a modicum of credit for allowing himself to be subjected to such questioning

There were some real life David Brent bits in there, 6:20 especially





Cricketer first, friend second. Probably an entertainer third! LOL
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Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 7:09pm
"I don't play cricket for an Esther Rantzen heart of gold, if Esther is handing out awards, do it for me charity work, five walks from John O'Groats to Land's End in two years, so, why don't you ask Phillipa Norris or, you know, Simon Coleman at Mencap what they think of Ian Botham"
"ONE-NIL!" - David Coleman, George Hamilton - "Finding The Words - The Art of Commentary"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote planning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 8:15pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

They are more then 2m apart they are in a large room and it is a
Modern building with high ceilings and good ventilation.   The mask wearing is requested when those situations are not possible.  In addition pretty hard to give a press conference with a mask on.

You clearly haven't seen a motorsport press conference. All the masks are on in fully equipped function rooms, and they're still getting the bug. 

Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:

TJ, they have the choice if they want to risk getting a mild flu and bring it into their household. I doubt they would take that risk if they have someone vulnerable in the house. They wear a mask in case they have picked it up somewhere and to help stop the spread to others. That is the reality that most people are basing their behaviour off of

When masks were declared mandatory on public transport, there were a handful of cases and no deaths. So everyone bought up their masks and deprived the health sector who really do need masks, of having even more PPE available to them. 

Now there are regularly 1000 cases per day and the country is closed for all but essential business. Entire industries such as tourism, have been wiped out. Mask wearing has failed to suppress the spread of the virus, because it was treated as the magic vaccine that it isn't. The grey train still see them as that though and they will never get rid of them, even in the event a vaccine is found. They'll still wear them in case they get the flu, which none of them did before this strain of it showed up on the island. 

As for me, I only wear them as the very last of last resorts because they are as useful as a chocolate fireguard. A heart attack can kill someone with no warning in half an hour, a stroke can lead to permanent damage, and both are infinitely more dangerous to most people's health than this. I don't host or attend house parties, I'm rarely in shops, and I only wear the visor if requested at the time. I'm not invincible at all but I know the state of my health better than anyone else. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote seanyshuffler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 8:30pm
Aren't masks supposed to stop you from giving someone else covid or stop you from spreading it. Masks aren't meant to stop you catching it.

I don't understand what you're giving out about planning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 8:36pm
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Aren't masks supposed to stop you from giving someone else covid or stop you from spreading it. Masks aren't meant to stop you catching it.

I don't understand what you're giving out about planning.

You're wasting your time debating with a brick wall. 


"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 8:41pm
Originally posted by planning planning wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

They are more then 2m apart they are in a large room and it is a
Modern building with high ceilings and good ventilation.   The mask wearing is requested when those situations are not possible.  In addition pretty hard to give a press conference with a mask on.

You clearly haven't seen a motorsport press conference. All the masks are on in fully equipped function rooms, and they're still getting the bug. 

Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:

TJ, they have the choice if they want to risk getting a mild flu and bring it into their household. I doubt they would take that risk if they have someone vulnerable in the house. They wear a mask in case they have picked it up somewhere and to help stop the spread to others. That is the reality that most people are basing their behaviour off of

When masks were declared mandatory on public transport, there were a handful of cases and no deaths. So everyone bought up their masks and deprived the health sector who really do need masks, of having even more PPE available to them. 

Now there are regularly 1000 cases per day and the country is closed for all but essential business. Entire industries such as tourism, have been wiped out. Mask wearing has failed to suppress the spread of the virus, because it was treated as the magic vaccine that it isn't. The grey train still see them as that though and they will never get rid of them, even in the event a vaccine is found. They'll still wear them in case they get the flu, which none of them did before this strain of it showed up on the island. 

As for me, I only wear them as the very last of last resorts because they are as useful as a chocolate fireguard. A heart attack can kill someone with no warning in half an hour, a stroke can lead to permanent damage, and both are infinitely more dangerous to most people's health than this. I don't host or attend house parties, I'm rarely in shops, and I only wear the visor if requested at the time. I'm not invincible at all but I know the state of my health better than anyone else. 

I find this hard to believe. 

How could someone that previously admitted they spend 6 odd weeks hoovering up other posters predictions on ybig throughout an entire league season a couple of years back, not be the life and soul of the party type?! 
"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto Baggio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2020 at 8:52pm
LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shedite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 9:04am
It'd be a great experiment to get the occupations of all the people that test positive. Seeing if the number of bar staff, gym staff, waiters, bus drivers, teachers etc contracting it are higher than the norm would be a great way to prove or disprove where the danger areas are
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 9:53am
I see the crank of choice for the Covid deniers, Dr. Martin Feely, lied outright in his latest Irish Times article (he's being silenced, doncha know, writing very prominent articles in the Irish Times as he is)

This is a thorough demolition of Dr. Feely's "talking points"

----------------

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1320762629229629440

Yesterday the @IrishTimes again published a #Covid19 piece that had not been fact checked. Piece by Martin Feely suggests the WHO had put forward a mortality of 0.1386%. This is untrue & this false claim was already directly addressed by WHO Oct 12th /1

Quote
https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1315997403762262016

There been a lot of misleading claims that the WHO suggested a low IFR for #Covid19 When specifically asked about that Oct 12th WHO says research converges at an IFR of 0.6% full segment at 19.27

The piece then refers to a a paper by "research expert Dr J Ioannidis which reports an overall Case Fatality Rate of 0.27%". But Ioannidis paper gave an IFR not CFR estimate of 0.27%, this is a significant error in itself as well as providing two contradictory estimates /2

WHO says IFR research converges on an IFR of 0.6% so both Martin's claims are misleading.  The WHO bulletin is not a policy statement but collects research of interest, presumably the Ioannidis paper was interesting for being an outlier with low IFR but about that.. /3

Ioannidis is somewhat infamous for claiming early in the pandemic that IFR was 0.02-0.04%, about 1/10th of the current claim.  He's one of a number of media savvy researchers who got a lot of airtime because their low IFR estimates aligned with business interests /4

His latest study still has an IFR less than half of the 0.6% the WHO says other research is converging on.  The reason appears to be because of the way he selected what research he included and excluded in this review as detailed in this thread /5

All this is very complex which is all the more why the responsibility is on the so called paper of record to fact check pieces like this.  It is not at all reasonable to expect the average reader to be able to do so, indeed the reader is not warned this hasn't been done /6


Martin opens with an ironic in the light of the above warning that much commentary is based on a "lack of understanding of Covid realities". Yet he goes on to question why cases are an important metric despite the very simple reality that they tell you how many are infectious /7

Cases also indicate how many people will be hospitalised in the future, will need ICU & perhaps most importantly how many will die.  There is a very long lag between cases and deaths so a basic reality is that waiting for deaths to alert you would doom you to many many more /8

It's only 3-4 weeks after Leo suggested copying the 'cases don't really matter' approach Belgium had adopted but now the butchers bill for doing so has started to become clear  as Belgium hits ICU number beyond what our public system has /9

Quote
Dividing by 2.3 the (Belgian) numbers in Ireland would mean
2100 in hospital, 185 new yesterday
330 in ICU, 21 new yesterday
5400 daily new infection
18 daily deaths

Martin, after warning abt scaremongering goes on to undermine hope that vaccine is on the way or that it could make much of a difference. In fact vaccine findings are expected in the next 2-3 months with very large quantities already under production /10

He then misrepresents WHO again by claiming they say lockdowns don't work.  This isn't correct, they correctly say they should be a last resort & the sort of testing to discover cases that Martin don't understand, along with the measures he opposes are 1st line of defence /11

He says "The number admitted to hospital in Dublin increased slightly over the past 4 weeks" when in fact over the last month those in hospital with Covid have increased a not very slight 350%. Again surely a claim that should have been fact checked by
@IrishTimes
 /12

He then again confuses CFR & IFR in the conclusion referring to a CFR for flu in 2018 that at 2.14% was "almost 10-fold higher than for Covid-19". The CFR for Covid in Ireland is not 0.214 but 3.3% - again fact checking should have picked this up /13

The only reason the 2018 flu has a CFR of 2.14% is precisely because unlike Covid only the sick were tested for it. If the same was applied to Covid19 the CFR in Ireland would be around 15-20%, it is lower only because those cases Martin didn't want counted are  /14

Martin's article is an example of sunk costs fallacy, once someone takes a bad position they tend to dig further into it. That's his excuse but there really isn't an excuse for the last of fact checking by the Irish Times, and not for the first time

The media have taken a similar infotainment approach on #Covid19 as they have to Climate Change.  Instead of providing representative fact checked explainers of the science to enable public understanding they present this sort of debate with outlier positions for clicks /16

It doesn't even reflect the publics position, polls show that runs between 4 and 6 to 1 in favour of the restrictions. Creating an impression of a 50:50 debate only makes sense if you are a business lobbyist valuing profit over lives /17
"ONE-NIL!" - David Coleman, George Hamilton - "Finding The Words - The Art of Commentary"

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Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 10:02am
Originally posted by Shedite Shedite wrote:

It'd be a great experiment to get the occupations of all the people that test positive. Seeing if the number of bar staff, gym staff, waiters, bus drivers, teachers etc contracting it are higher than the norm would be a great way to prove or disprove where the danger areas are

Seems relevant alright, but I imagine a majority of people have picked it up in non-workplace settings which would mean the occupation of those people is irrelevant

But we do know that certain workplaces such as meat plants and indeed healthcare work seem particularly prone to it

I'd say while there are some established patterns, there are a lot of patterns of transmission which are pretty much indecipherable, in that transmission is being perpetuated in drips and drabs everywhere

The only pattern that really makes sense is that the more close contact with other human beings you have, and especially indoors, the higher the chance of getting it


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jackal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 1:50pm
40,000 people turn up at a protest in Bangladesh over France. What do ya do there like. Even if only ten people had the virus, a few hundred will have been in contact.
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Ray Houghton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote planning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 5:03pm
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

Aren't masks supposed to stop you from giving someone else covid or stop you from spreading it. Masks aren't meant to stop you catching it.

Many of those who have tested positive are wearing them. As with any bug, if you don't have it, you can't give it to someone else, so wearing them everywhere is pointless, and the case rates here and elsewhere have rocketed up. 

You can do what you're told by the "15k cases by the end of March" conmen, and assume by default that you or those you meet have it. It's equivalent to assuming that somebody is guilty of something until proven innocent. I don't think society can function like that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ChesterCopperpot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2020 at 10:31am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borussia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2020 at 1:10pm
Any mention in that article of how our healthcare capacity ranks against other countries in the list?
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Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2020 at 8:06pm
France has announced a national lockdown 

Presumably our resident INTERNET Experts™ will be along any second to tell us why it's not needed
"ONE-NIL!" - David Coleman, George Hamilton - "Finding The Words - The Art of Commentary"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2020 at 4:08pm
I see the parents of the 17 year-old that was reported to have died of covid in Derry have come out and said he didn't die of covid. 
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Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2020 at 5:15pm
Originally posted by Deane Deane wrote:

I see the parents of the 17 year-old that was reported to have died of covid in Derry have come out and said he didn't die of covid. 
They aren't in a position to say that and I don't believe that's what they have actually said but no doubt it won't stop right-wing culture warriors using them for their own cynical purposes anyway
"ONE-NIL!" - David Coleman, George Hamilton - "Finding The Words - The Art of Commentary"

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