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2022 World Cup Qualification - Permutations thread

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Phil Babb
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote footballman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 10:47am
Originally posted by grannyrule grannyrule wrote:

It doesn't really matter if we fall into Pot 3. There is not much between Pot 2 or Pot 3 teams at all. Any of them could turn the other over on any given day. 

There's no way we're finishing ahead of the Swiss in a group but apart from that there's nothing to fear in pot 2
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deco79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:44am
At the minute there's not one team I'd fancy our chances of getting 4 points off in Pot 2 if we were to end up in Pot 3... Whereas if we are lucky enough to be in Pot 2 I could see us getting 3/4/6 Points from those teams in Pot 3. There's actually some teams in Pot 4 we'd struggle to beat home and away. We Need to be in Pot 2 to stand any chance. Probably stated the obvious!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darmack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:46am
Ah I think we should be fearful of 
Poland - Top of their NL group
Ukraine - Beat Spain. Had a bad few years but seem to be coming good.
Serbia, Turkey, Russia - Just couldn't see us doing much against them.

If we were pot 3 we could be lucky and get Slovakia.


Edited by darmack - 15 Oct 2020 at 11:47am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:27pm
Originally posted by footballman footballman wrote:

Originally posted by grannyrule grannyrule wrote:

It doesn't really matter if we fall into Pot 3. There is not much between Pot 2 or Pot 3 teams at all. Any of them could turn the other over on any given day. 

There's no way we're finishing ahead of the Swiss in a group but apart from that there's nothing to fear in pot 2
there are 5/6 teams in pot 2 a lot better than most of pot 3 so I don’t agree with little difference.

As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again which would be an ok draw.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gspain Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:34pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

Ah I think we should be fearful of 
Poland - Top of their NL group
Ukraine - Beat Spain. Had a bad few years but seem to be coming good.
Serbia, Turkey, Russia - Just couldn't see us doing much against them.

If we were pot 3 we could be lucky and get Slovakia.

Exactly or Northern Ireland.  Although if we end up in Pot 2 most of pot 3 will want to draw us.  

If we get Pot 2 we will need less luck in the draw.  If we end up in Pot 3 we need a lot of luck.  

Looking at the current Pot 2 there are very few if any  that you'd fancy our chances against.  Maybe the team that would replace us is by far the best option to draw.   

In pot 3 I'd be happy to draw Greece, Bosnia, Scotland , Romania, Northern Ireland or Slovakia and we'd have a decent chance of finishing ahead of them. After that there are some tricky teams but only Finland and maybe Israel or Slovenia at a push are likely to finish in the top 2.  

Although we are currently in Pot 2 the winner of Northern Ireland v Slovakia or Iceland (if they beat Hungary) are in better shape to get into Pot 2.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dots1982 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

[QUOTE=footballman][QUOTE=grannyrule]

As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again

Solid logic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:48pm
Originally posted by Dots1982 Dots1982 wrote:

Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

[QUOTE=footballman][QUOTE=grannyrule]

As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again

Solid logic

Well most likely we will end up in Pot 3, which means we will get Denmark, Wales and Georgia
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dots1982 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:53pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by Dots1982 Dots1982 wrote:

Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

[QUOTE=footballman][QUOTE=grannyrule]

As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again

Solid logic

Well most likely we will end up in Pot 3, which means we will get Denmark, Wales and Georgia
 

And Luxembourg as we will need to get someone we haven’t played in a while to get drawn against again for the 2024 qualifiers to continue the cycle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote xRedmanLFCx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 7:40pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by Dots1982 Dots1982 wrote:

Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

[QUOTE=footballman][QUOTE=grannyrule]

As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again

Solid logic

Well most likely we will end up in Pot 3, which means we will get Denmark, Wales and Georgia

I'd fancy another trip to Tbilisi. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cymro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:16pm
There's a considerable difference between the average quality of teams in pot 2 vs. the average quality of teams in pot 3. Luck of the draw is always the most important factor, but being in a higher seeding pot helps a lot.

From pot 2 there is the possibility of getting Norway (nightmare draw), but that's a 1/10 chance. Rest of the teams aren't really at that level (Norway are arguably only a cut above due to Haaland, but Haaland on his own could beat any pot 2 team pretty much). 

From pot 3, comparable draws might be Switzerland, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, in fact, pretty much any team would be of a comparable level to Norway, with players who can beat you on their own.

In pot 2 you've a good chance of being in a group where a top 2 finish is much easier. From pot 3 you would find it a lot harder. Not impossible, but much harder.

It's massive for you if you end up in pot 2, especially since you now can't win the NL group and be in with a chance of a play-off by the back door.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irelandfan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:28pm
We where 2nd seeds for Euro 2016 and got Scotland, Germany and Poland. For 2018 we where 4th seeds and got Wales, Austria and Serbia probably the easiest World Cup Draw we ever had it can go either way. But Pot 2 would be great 

Edited by irelandfan - 15 Oct 2020 at 11:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 6:15pm
Assuming we end up in Pot 3 and Pot 1 stays the same we'd have to hope to get Denmark as top seeds even though we're probably sick to death of the sight of them. They are the only top seed apart from Croatia at a push that we would have some chance of beating. 

Denmark
Slovakia/N.I. or Sweden
Ireland
Belarus
Andorra
San Marino

That would be a group that we would have a small chance of topping or at least challenging for top spot.  




Edited by irishmufc - 16 Oct 2020 at 6:16pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote belt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 9:40pm
Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

Assuming we end up in Pot 3 and Pot 1 stays the same we'd have to hope to get Denmark as top seeds even though we're probably sick to death of the sight of them. They are the only top seed apart from Croatia at a push that we would have some chance of beating. 

Denmark
Slovakia/N.I. or Sweden
Ireland
Belarus
Andorra
San Marino

That would be a group that we would have a small chance of topping or at least challenging for top spot.  



Lovely looking group, I think the Faroes can still sneak in to Pot 4 too.

I think they are better than Denmark but I'd still prefer Croatia, genuinely couldn't face watching us play Denmark again. I don't think Croatia  are as strong as they were, a lot of their key players getting on. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Healy52003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 9:48pm
Germany
Wales 
Ireland
Georgia
Kosovo
Gibraltar
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lenny82 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 10:00am
I'd take our chances in Pot 3 if it meant NI didn't qualify for the Euro's!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 10:11am
Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

I'd take our chances in Pot 3 if it meant NI didn't qualify for the Euro's!

Slovakia are in tatters and have just sacked their manager. I would accept that N.I. will qualify and make peace with it if I were you. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote xRedmanLFCx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 8:52pm
Originally posted by Cymro Cymro wrote:

There's a considerable difference between the average quality of teams in pot 2 vs. the average quality of teams in pot 3. Luck of the draw is always the most important factor, but being in a higher seeding pot helps a lot.

From pot 2 there is the possibility of getting Norway (nightmare draw), but that's a 1/10 chance. Rest of the teams aren't really at that level (Norway are arguably only a cut above due to Haaland, but Haaland on his own could beat any pot 2 team pretty much). 

From pot 3, comparable draws might be Switzerland, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, in fact, pretty much any team would be of a comparable level to Norway, with players who can beat you on their own.

In pot 2 you've a good chance of being in a group where a top 2 finish is much easier. From pot 3 you would find it a lot harder. Not impossible, but much harder.

It's massive for you if you end up in pot 2, especially since you now can't win the NL group and be in with a chance of a play-off by the back door.

What do you mean in the last paragraph/sentence?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote flaghunter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 9:03pm
He means our only chance of WC qualification is now via finishing in the top 2 in our group which would be more likely if we were second seeds. 
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