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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17 |
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footballman 
Ronnie Whelan 
Joined: 10 Jan 2020 Status: Offline Points: 81 |
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 Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 10:47am |
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There's no way we're finishing ahead of the Swiss in a group but apart from that there's nothing to fear in pot 2
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Deco79
Kevin Kilbane 
Joined: 17 Jan 2010 Location: London Status: Offline Points: 331 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:44am |
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At the minute there's not one team I'd fancy our chances of getting 4 points off in Pot 2 if we were to end up in Pot 3... Whereas if we are lucky enough to be in Pot 2 I could see us getting 3/4/6 Points from those teams in Pot 3. There's actually some teams in Pot 4 we'd struggle to beat home and away. We Need to be in Pot 2 to stand any chance. Probably stated the obvious!
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darmack
Ray Houghton 
Joined: 24 Mar 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 4694 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:46am |
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Ah I think we should be fearful of
Poland - Top of their NL group Ukraine - Beat Spain. Had a bad few years but seem to be coming good. Serbia, Turkey, Russia - Just couldn't see us doing much against them. If we were pot 3 we could be lucky and get Slovakia.
Edited by darmack - 15 Oct 2020 at 11:47am |
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The dark side.. And the light
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Dalymount79
Liam Brady
Joined: 17 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1544 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:27pm |
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As we always get someone we just played it seems inevitable it will be Slovakia again which would be an ok draw.
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gspain
Ray Houghton
Joined: 21 Apr 2010 Status: Offline Points: 4680 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:34pm |
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Exactly or Northern Ireland. Although if we end up in Pot 2 most of pot 3 will want to draw us. If we get Pot 2 we will need less luck in the draw. If we end up in Pot 3 we need a lot of luck. Looking at the current Pot 2 there are very few if any that you'd fancy our chances against. Maybe the team that would replace us is by far the best option to draw. In pot 3 I'd be happy to draw Greece, Bosnia, Scotland , Romania, Northern Ireland or Slovakia and we'd have a decent chance of finishing ahead of them. After that there are some tricky teams but only Finland and maybe Israel or Slovenia at a push are likely to finish in the top 2. Although we are currently in Pot 2 the winner of Northern Ireland v Slovakia or Iceland (if they beat Hungary) are in better shape to get into Pot 2.
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Dots1982
Kevin Kilbane
Joined: 09 Sep 2018 Status: Offline Points: 468 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:44pm |
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Solid logic
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane
Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:48pm |
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Well most likely we will end up in Pot 3, which means we will get Denmark, Wales and Georgia
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Dots1982
Kevin Kilbane
Joined: 09 Sep 2018 Status: Offline Points: 468 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 2:53pm |
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And Luxembourg as we will need to get someone we haven’t played in a while to get drawn against again for the 2024 qualifiers to continue the cycle.
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xRedmanLFCx
Davey Langan 
Joined: 10 Jul 2015 Status: Offline Points: 994 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 7:40pm |
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I'd fancy another trip to Tbilisi.
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"We will be galvanised and motivated, and we will bring thousands to this tournament." - MON
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Cymro
Ronnie Whelan
Joined: 06 Sep 2020 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 74 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:16pm |
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There's a considerable difference between the average quality of teams in pot 2 vs. the average quality of teams in pot 3. Luck of the draw is always the most important factor, but being in a higher seeding pot helps a lot.
From pot 2 there is the possibility of getting Norway (nightmare draw), but that's a 1/10 chance. Rest of the teams aren't really at that level (Norway are arguably only a cut above due to Haaland, but Haaland on his own could beat any pot 2 team pretty much). From pot 3, comparable draws might be Switzerland, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, in fact, pretty much any team would be of a comparable level to Norway, with players who can beat you on their own. In pot 2 you've a good chance of being in a group where a top 2 finish is much easier. From pot 3 you would find it a lot harder. Not impossible, but much harder. It's massive for you if you end up in pot 2, especially since you now can't win the NL group and be in with a chance of a play-off by the back door.
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irelandfan
Ray Houghton
Joined: 13 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 3655 |
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Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 11:28pm |
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We where 2nd seeds for Euro 2016 and got Scotland, Germany and Poland. For 2018 we where 4th seeds and got Wales, Austria and Serbia probably the easiest World Cup Draw we ever had it can go either way. But Pot 2 would be great
Edited by irelandfan - 15 Oct 2020 at 11:29pm |
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I'm the gaffer whatever I say goes.
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane
I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 25079 |
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Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 6:15pm |
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Assuming we end up in Pot 3 and Pot 1 stays the same we'd have to hope to get Denmark as top seeds even though we're probably sick to death of the sight of them. They are the only top seed apart from Croatia at a push that we would have some chance of beating.
Denmark Slovakia/N.I. or Sweden Ireland Belarus Andorra San Marino That would be a group that we would have a small chance of topping or at least challenging for top spot. Edited by irishmufc - 16 Oct 2020 at 6:16pm |
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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belt
Davey Langan
Fantasy Football Champion 17/18 Joined: 23 Jul 2015 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 816 |
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Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 9:40pm |
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Lovely looking group, I think the Faroes can still sneak in to Pot 4 too. I think they are better than Denmark but I'd still prefer Croatia, genuinely couldn't face watching us play Denmark again. I don't think Croatia are as strong as they were, a lot of their key players getting on.
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Healy52003
Liam Brady
Joined: 02 Dec 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2001 |
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Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 9:48pm |
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Germany
Wales Ireland Georgia Kosovo Gibraltar
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Lenny82
Liam Brady
Joined: 20 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 2914 |
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Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 10:00am |
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I'd take our chances in Pot 3 if it meant NI didn't qualify for the Euro's!
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane
I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 25079 |
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Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 10:11am |
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Slovakia are in tatters and have just sacked their manager. I would accept that N.I. will qualify and make peace with it if I were you.
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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xRedmanLFCx
Davey Langan
Joined: 10 Jul 2015 Status: Offline Points: 994 |
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Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 8:52pm |
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What do you mean in the last paragraph/sentence?
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"We will be galvanised and motivated, and we will bring thousands to this tournament." - MON
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flaghunter
Kevin Kilbane
Joined: 11 Nov 2014 Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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Posted: 17 Oct 2020 at 9:03pm |
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He means our only chance of WC qualification is now via finishing in the top 2 in our group which would be more likely if we were second seeds.
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grannyrule wrote: