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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17

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Denis Irwin View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:41pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 


Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list AngryLOL


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote J0E_90 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:45pm
Just to add, for anyone interested, have found this tool useful for adding/subtracting results to the most recent rankings.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html

Here is a rough tally for the current situation (rough due to the lack of decimal point information from FIFA). I think my maths is correct.

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Republic of Ireland 1484.5
-------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Edited by J0E_90 - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:54pm
Here are Pots 1 to 6, as they stand. Serious drop in quality half way down the 4th pot. 19 places between North Macedonia and Belarus.




Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)
25 Norway (44th)
26 Czech Republic (45th)
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina (49th)
28 Scotland (50th)
29 Hungary (52nd)
30 Greece (54th)
------------------------
31 Finland (58th)
32 Bulgaria (=59th)
33 Montenegro (=64th)
34 Slovenia (=64th)
35 Albania (66th)
36 North Macedonia (68th)
37 Belarus (87th)
38 Georgia (91st)
39 Israel (93rd)
40 Cyprus (95th)
---------------------------
41 Luxembourg (98th)
42 Armenia (102nd)
43 Estonia (104th)
44 Faroe Islands (110th)
45 Azerbaijan (114th)
46 Kosovo (115th)
47 Kazakhstan (118th)
48 Lithuania (=131st)
49 Andorra (135th)
50 Latvia (137th)
--------------------------
51 Moldova (175th)
52 Liechtenstein (180th)
53 Malta (184th)
54 Gibraltar (196th)
55 San Marino (209th)
-------------------------


Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:22pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:12pm
Swiss probably the top seed to get looking at the rest of them (Not that it will be easy)





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr. Pat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:24pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Here are Pots 1 to 6, as they stand. Serious drop in quality half way down the 4th pot. 19 places between North Macedonia and Belarus.




Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)
25 Norway (44th)
26 Czech Republic (45th)
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina (49th)
28 Scotland (50th)
29 Hungary (52nd)
30 Greece (54th)
------------------------
31 Finland (58th)
32 Bulgaria (=59th)
33 Montenegro (=64th)
34 Slovenia (=64th)
35 Albania (66th)
36 North Macedonia (68th)
37 Belarus (87th)
38 Georgia (91st)
39 Israel (93rd)
40 Cyprus (95th)
---------------------------
41 Luxembourg (98th)
42 Armenia (102nd)
43 Estonia (104th)
44 Faroe Islands (110th)
45 Azerbaijan (114th)
46 Kosovo (115th)
47 Kazakhstan (118th)
48 Lithuania (=131st)
49 Andorra (135th)
50 Latvia (137th)
--------------------------
51 Moldova (175th)
52 Liechtenstein (180th)
53 Malta (184th)
54 Gibraltar (196th)
55 San Marino (209th)
-------------------------

Thanks for this. Great information. So vital we stay in that second seed spot. I wouldn't be fearful of any of the currently seeded 3rd.
Geremi has let Kilbane in here, cross comes out to Holland, 1:1!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Joe Stalin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:33pm
Love these threads! fair play Rolo.
 
Quick question on the algorthm - it doesnt specify that play off matches for the confederation finals are included? It says the playoffs for nations league definitely are.

 

If they are included and they’ve the same weighting as the qualifiers then the Slovakia match will be worth considerably more, almost 2 nations league games 0.15 vs 0.25?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:39pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Not the case anymore, see my post above.

You're right, apologies. I completely forgot the system changed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darmack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:48pm
Feckin love this permutations stuff
The dark side.. And the light
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yoco Santos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:39pm
+1 good work
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm
Before last night's games:

Seeding - Team - FIFA Ranking points 

17 Turkey 1494
18 Serbia 1494
19 Slovakia 1490
20 Rep of Ireland 1486
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Romania 1475
23 Russia 1470
24 Iceland 1465


Duffy's equaliser meant we only dropped 1.5 points, rather than 9.
Russia beat Serbia; a gain of 7.8 points for Russia, a loss of 7.8 for Serbia.
Turkey lost to Hungary. A loss of 8.6 points for Turkey.
The others above didnt play last night.


So that group of teams after last night's matches now look like this:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Very tight. We'd be out of the top 20 now if we had lost last night.


Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:51pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fozz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 4:27pm
Very interesting.
The North play Romania later so we'll see movement for both of those most likely.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by Fozz Fozz wrote:

Very interesting.
The North play Romania later so we'll see movement for both of those most likely.




A win for either will give them 7.5 points, and the other will lose 7.5 points. A draw in that game will see both of them take 0 points from the game. That wouldn't be the case in other drawn games (teams gain and lose points in a drawn game) but in that match both teams would take 0 in the event of a draw.


So a draw there would be best for us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 8:59pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Before last night's games:

Seeding - Team - FIFA Ranking points 

17 Turkey 1494
18 Serbia 1494
19 Slovakia 1490
20 Rep of Ireland 1486
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Romania 1475
23 Russia 1470
24 Iceland 1465


Duffy's equaliser meant we only dropped 1.5 points, rather than 9.
Russia beat Serbia; a gain of 7.8 points for Russia, a loss of 7.8 for Serbia.
Turkey lost to Hungary. A loss of 8.6 points for Turkey.
The others above didnt play last night.


So that group of teams after last night's matches now look like this:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Very tight. We'd be out of the top 20 now if we had lost last night.
slovakia losing 2-0 to Czechs so they could fall behind us 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:32pm
Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:41pm
Seedings Update:


Before tonight's matches:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465



Slovakia lost to Czech Republic tonight, and so they drop 8.1 points.
Northern Ireland and Romania drew. They both get 0 points, no gain or loss of points.


So, after tonight's matches:



17 Serbia 1486.2
18 Turkey 1485.4
19 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
20 Slovakia 1481.9
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Liam Green Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:42pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? 
NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:45pm
Originally posted by Liam Green Liam Green wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? 
NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins

See the post above yours.

Didnt see NI game.

I was watching Slovakia v Czech Rep in first half then Italy Bosnia in second half.

Slovakia are beatable, Bosnia would be very tough if we make it to the final.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:54pm
Very tight between Ireland the teams around us.

Just a further update to emphasise the importance of these Nations League games for the World Cup seedings:

If Ireland beat Finland, thats a gain of 6.1 points.
A draw and we drop 1.4 points.
Lose and we drop 8.9 points.
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